A perfect week couldn’t have came at a better time! We won a whopping 7.28 units thanks to hitting on both our top plays, bringing our total for the year up to 15.58 units. Remember, a unit is what your single bet would be, so if you bet $10 a unit, you would be up $155.80 on the year. Our top play on the Teaser of Chiefs with the TNF under cashed easily, while a decision to go for two in the London game helped our under hit. Meanwhile, the Lions won nicely, and the trend that led to their win pays off again.
As I have written about before, we have already discussed some key terms and looked at some season win total bets as well. Every week for the entire season I will be listing my best bets for the week, as well as picks and advice for survivor pools and pick ‘em leagues.
3-Stars: 6-3 (+7.38 units)
2-Stars: 10-5-2 (+8.20 units)
Total: +15.58 Units for a weighted win percentage of 66.67%
Without further ado, here are the picks:
Top Play (3-Star)
Texans -7 (Thursday Night Game)
The Texans haven’t been nearly the great team many people expected so far this year, but they put in a solid performance against Jacksonville last week. They now host the struggling Dolphins on Thursday night and will look to continue to get their offense clicking. Lamar Miller finally had a good rushing game, and the results speak for themselves. I think Houston continues to roll and puts a decent sized whopping on Miami tonight. There is also an eye-opening trend that favors Houston tonight. Home favorites of seven or more points on Thursday nights are 15-2 SU and 12-4-1 in the last 17 games, including two already this year in New England vs Indy and the Rams vs the Vikings.
Solid Plays (2-Stars)
Hold your nose on this play. The Giants are atrocious this year, yet they find themselves only a small dog (pick ‘em at some books) against the Redskins. The Redskins are the epitome of a roller coaster team and can beat or lose to any team on any given week. The reverse line movement on this game is noticeable as well, considering there have only been 15% of tickets placed on the Giants, but the line has moved from Giants +1 to 0 or -1. Follow the sharps and ride the Giants.
This is more of a gut play than anything else, but I don’t think the Panthers are a great team. I also think they will be on too much of a high after last week’s inexplicable win and will crash down to earth against a well-coached defensive team. Look for this to be a close game, but the Ravens will pull away at the end.
Survivor Pool Plays
Our safe plays went 2-0 last week with wins by the Rams and Chiefs. We also avoided a heart breaking Eagles loss in the stay away portion.
Safe Plays – Houston, Kansas City, New England
Risky Plays – Giants
Stay Away – Bears over Jets, Rams over Packers
Pick ‘Em Plays (no spread)
An 11-3 week should have seen you make some money in your pick ‘em league last week. Let’s repeat.
Texans, Eagles, Steelers, Chiefs, Bears, Giants, Seahawks, Buccs, Ravens, Colts, Cardinals, Rams, Saints, Patriots
As always, if the Eagles do not end up in my best bets section (and generally they won’t since I have a rule to never bet them, too much emotionally invested to begin with as well as bias of being my favorite team), I will post what my play is on them anyway.
Another week, another horrible job by the Eagles coaching staff at securing a win. While Carson looked bad on the final drive (Smallwood was wide open!), the coaching, especially on the defensive side of the ball, deserves a ton of heat. Jim Schwartz is just watching his potential head coaching stock tank like his prevent defenses have done all year. The defense was playing lights out all game, then decided to back off and let Carolina pick up 4th downs and drive down the field to win. The offense was also super conservative down the stretch. All in all, a very bad game by the Eagles coaching, and until they turn things around, it’s hard to trust them – which is a difficult statement after what we saw last year. However, the defense did hold Carolina to a shut out through three quarters, and the offense did have a statement 10-minute 95-yard TD drive. There are positives, and I think a trip to London against the struggling Jaguars will do the trick. The Jaguars will have issues scoring points, and while their defense is still good, I expect the Eagles to capitalize off good starting field position and get the job done. Look for a statement game in terms of creativity from Doug Pederson and Carson to quiet the talk of his choking last game. Eagles win 20-9.