Back to our winning ways in week 16. We added 2.55 units, bringing our total for the year to 15.43 units. Remember, a unit is what your single bet would be, so if you bet $10 a unit, you would be up $154.30 on the year. Our top play on the teaser hit nicely, thanks to the Browns kneeling on the 3-yard line to close things out; and our two stars split after a very nice upset winner on the Ravens.
As I have written about before, we have already discussed some key terms and looked at some season win total bets as well. Every week for the entire season I will be listing my best bets for the week, as well as picks and advice for survivor pools and pick ‘em leagues.
3-Stars: 11-7 (+9.03 units)
2-Stars: 20-15-2 (+6.40 Units)
Total: +15.43 Units for a weighted win percentage of 58.87%
Week 17 calls for a different strategy, and one that I know isn’t popular. But a personal belief of mine is to never bet on week 17. There are far too many unknowns and motivational issues due to teams being eliminated and what not. The only game that has two teams playing that both are playing for playoff inclusion is the Sunday night game between the Colts and Titans; and I don’t have a personal play on that game. As such, I suggest taking an easy approach to Sunday (from a betting perspective, that is), and just watch the games unfold. Hopefully the Bears help our Eagles out, and we’ll look to get back to our winning ways in the playoffs.
Survivor Pool Plays
Our safe plays went 5-0 as all our plays won, we even went 3-0 with our risky plays.
Safe Plays – Saints, Eagles, Chargers, and Rams
Risky Plays – Browns and Bears
Stay Away – Steelers over Bengals, Chiefs over Raiders, and Seahawks over Cardinals
Pick ‘Em Plays (no spread)
We went 12-4 last week, hopefully putting you in the money.
Chiefs, Saints, Patriots, Eagles, Lions, Texans, Browns, Bucs, Bills, Colts, Steelers, Bears, Chargers, Seahawks, and Rams.
As always, if the Eagles do not end up in my best bets section (and generally they won’t since I have a rule to never bet them; too much emotionally invested to begin with, as well as bias of being my favorite team), I will post what my play is on them anyway.
Another Nick Foles Christmas miracle as the Eagles kept their playoff hopes alive thanks to a last second field goal by Jake Elliott. This week is a far inferior opponent, but the control is not in our own hands anymore. I think the Eagles make quick work of the Redskins and beat them by at least two touchdowns in a very complete performance on both sides of the ball. However, the Bears need to bring their A-game to help us out by beating the Vikings. I think the Bears are obviously the better team, but once they see the Rams putting easy work to the 49ers, they could pull their starters. The 49ers haven’t been a pushover lately though, so hopefully they keep the game close enough against the Rams to force the Bears to keep pushing. Time will tell. Eagles win 34-17.