Not a perfect week like week 12, but we did come out on top in week 13. We won 0.55 units, bringing our total for the year to 17.42 units. Remember, a unit is what your single bet would be, so if you bet $10 a unit, you would be up $174.20 on the year. Our top play on the under in the Cowboys-Saints game cashed easily, and while the Browns failed to show up, we split on the Rams and Chiefs coming off the byes.
As I have written about before, we have already discussed some key terms and looked at some season win total bets as well. Every week for the entire season I will be listing my best bets for the week, as well as picks and advice for survivor pools and pick ‘em leagues.
3-Stars: 10-5 (+12.30 units)
2-Stars: 16-12-2 (+5.12 Units)
Total: +17.42 Units for a weighted win percentage of 61.39%
Without further ado, here are the picks:
Top Play (3-Star)
Ravens/Chiefs Over 51.5
Betting the over in a Ravens game might not seem like the best idea, but their offense has one more week of learning under Lamar Jackson and get to face a very susceptible Chiefs defense. The Chiefs can score on anyone and are 6-3 to the over at home this year. Add in the RLM of only 32% of tickets being on the over but the line moving from 49 to 51.5, and it spells a 3-star play on the over in this game.
Solid Plays (2-Stars)
The Colts looked dreadful last week, getting shut out by the left-for-dead Jaguars. However, they missed on several opportunities to score, and I think they will bounce back in this game versus their divisional rival Houston. Teams going on the road as underdogs, coming off shutouts as favorites, are 3-1 ATS since 2010. I know it’s a small sample, but look for the Colts to keep this game within the number and possibly pull off the upset.
The Bears have not looked good without Mitch Trubisky. However, he returns this week to face the Rams. This is not an easy task but the Bears and their defense will be aided by sub-30-degree temperatures. I think the Bears pull off the upset here and beat the Rams. Keep in mind, home dogs of three or less points that have a win percentage over 66% after week 10 are 9-3 ATS and have won seven of those contests outright.
Lions/Cardinals Under 40.5
This is a play strictly off some weird RLM going on in the betting. Only 25% of tickets are on the under in this game, yet the line dropped a full point since opening. Neither of these teams are good, nor are they playing for anything but pride. I think we’ll see a dreadful game that ends up in the low-30’s point-wise.
Survivor Pool Plays
Our safe plays went 3-1 as the Packers lost and fired McCarthy right after.
Safe Plays – Saints, Chargers, and Steelers
Risky Plays – Eagles, Colts, Jets, and Bears
Stay Away – Patriots over Dolphins, Texans over Colts, Titans over Jags and Packers over Falcons
Pick ‘Em Plays (no spread)
We went 7-9 last week, not very good.
Titans, Chiefs, Colts, Panthers, Packers, Saints, Jets, Patriots, Bears, Giants, 49ers, Chargers, Lions, Eagles, Steelers, Seahawks
As always, if the Eagles do not end up in my best bets section (and generally they won’t since I have a rule to never bet them, too much emotionally invested to begin with as well as bias of being my favorite team), I will post what my play is on them anyway.
We won! Granted most of the game was against Mark Sanchez, but the defense looked good and the offense put up 28 points versus a good Washington defense. I think the team is regaining a little of their swagger and will look to punch the Cowboys in the mouth this week. The Cowboys loss stings way more than the Saints blowout, and I think everyone on the team wants to send the Cowboys a message. Dallas chokes in December, and I think the Eagles will come out firing on all cylinders and play a complete game. The run defense will keep Zeke in check and force Dak to beat them with his arm while the offense will hit on a couple of big plays to come out of Dallas tied for the division lead. Eagles 20-13.