Vegas got us last week. We lost 3.18 units, bringing our total for the year to 10.50 units. Remember, a unit is what your single bet would be, so if you bet $10 a unit, you would be up $105.00 on the year. Our top play on the Texans missed covering by a point, and while we won our play on Thursday night, the Vikings weren’t able to get the job down vs the Bears on Sunday night.
As I have written about before, we have already discussed some key terms and looked at some season win total bets as well. Every week for the entire season I will be listing my best bets for the week, as well as picks and advice for survivor pools and pick ‘em leagues.
3-Stars: 8-5 (+6.84 units)
2-Stars: 13-10-2 (+3.66 Units)
Total: +10.50 Units for a weighted win percentage of 58.82%
Without further ado, here are the picks:
Top Play (3-Star)
Turkey Day Teaser – Redskins +13.5 with Saints -6.5
I actually believe that the Redskins will keep the score within the 7-point spread and could actually pull off an upset versus Dallas. Despite Alex Smith getting injured, the Redskins still sport a formidable defense and should be able to keep this game from getting out of hand. The Cowboys are also 0-4 as 7 or more point favorites versus the division lately. On the other side, the Saints could very well be the best team in the NFL, and I think they not only know it but want to show it. After the Rams’ performance on Monday night, look for the Saints to come out firing against the outmatched Falcons and win this one in a snooze fest.
Solid Plays (2-Stars)
There is some reverse line movement here that saw the line drop by a point despite under 40% of tickets being wagered on the Bills. I think the Bills have played way better than anyone imagined this year and will look to continue that trend. Also, the Jaguars lost a brutal game to the Steelers last week. That game, in my opinion, was their last stand. This team had Super Bowl aspirations this year and have fallen woefully short. I think they will come out completely flat in this game, a meaningless one in frigid Buffalo. Bills win this one outright.
Tom Brady is coming off a bye week. Not much more needs to be said as the Patriots are 5-1 SU and ATS as away favorites coming off a bye. Not to mention the trend we’ve mentioned multiple times in the past of betting away favorites coming off a bye (73-39 ATS since 2000). The thought behind this trend is that better teams (favorites, especially on the road since accounting for home field) with extra rest and preparation should win and cover more than the average. The Patriots certainly fit that mold. Bet them here, and if the line moves to 8.5, a nice teaser opportunity will arise.
Survivor Pool Plays
Our safe plays went 2-0 last week, but the risky plays on the Titans or Vikings didn’t pan out.
Safe Plays – Patriots and Saints
Risky Plays – Bills, Browns, 49ers, Redskins
Stay Away – Ravens over Raiders, Chargers over Cardinals, Cowboys over Redskins, Bears over Lions
Pick ‘Em Plays (no spread)
We went 6-7 last week, not good enough to win. Let’s get back to our winning ways.
Bears, Redskins, Saints, Bills, Ravens, 49ers, Eagles, Browns, Patriots, Panthers, Colts, Chargers, Steelers, Packers, Texans
As always, if the Eagles do not end up in my best bets section (and generally they won’t since I have a rule to never bet them, too much emotionally invested to begin with, as well as bias of being my favorite team), I will post what my play is on them anyway.
I won’t even waste any time looking back to that Saints game. It was so pathetic that I think I’d break my laptop if I think back to that game. Moving on to the Giants, the Eagles still have a chance to win this division. This is the game they need to get back on track. Despite the Giants looking better in recent weeks, I think the Eagles will use that woeful game against the Saints as a wake-up call. Carson will put this team on his shoulders if he has to in order to make up for his individually awful game. I think this team will finally respond to their bad play (especially the offensive line) and put up a good, not great performance. Eagles win 34-23.