Week 11 NFL Best Bets

Week ten did not go as planned. We lost 1.27 units, bringing our total for the year to 13.68 units. Remember, a unit is what your single bet would be, so if you bet $10 a unit, you would be up $136.80 on the year. Our top play on the teaser of Saints with Falcons/Browns under hit very easily, but we dropped both the two star games since the 49ers weren’t able to beat the lowly Giants.

As I have wrote about before, we have already discussed some key terms and looked at some season win total bets as well. Every week for the entire season I will be listing my best bets for the week, as well as picks and advice for survivor pools and pick ‘em leagues.

Year-To-Date Results

3-Stars: 8-4 (+9.84 units)

2-Stars: 12-9-2 (+3.84 Units)

Total: +13.68 Units for a weighted win percentage of 61.54%

 

Without further ado, here are the picks:

 

Top Play (3-Star)

Texans -3

The Texans are coming off of their bye week and playing an average Redskins team that is getting more credit for their record than their play suggests. The Texans are a way better team and are figuring things out at the right time. This also triggers a very profitable trend of betting away favorites off a bye week – teams that meet these criteria are 73-37 ATS since 2000, good for a 66.4% cover rate. Play the Texans comfortably this week.

 

Solid Plays (2-Stars)

Vikings +3 (Buy the half-point)

The Bears are playing great football right now, but don’t forget the expectations on the Vikings before this season. Getting three points in a tight NFC North game is always the way to go. Also consider this trend, games in which the home team is favored by less than 3 points despite having a better win percentage than their opponent this late in the season have gone 8-20 ATS and 10-18 straight up. Back the Vikings with the points and this could also be a good game to use in a teaser.

Seahawks -2.5 (Thursday Night)

Why in the world are the Seahawks favored in this game vs the Packers? This line makes no sense, and if you’ve been following along this year you know that when lines don’t make sense, you bet them. The Seahawks have turned a corner from their miserable play to start the year, and the Packers just don’t seem to have the coaching to help Aaron Rodgers play to his fullest ability. Another trend to note here, home favorites of 3 or less points that have a sub -.500 win percentage this late in the season are 12-2 straight up and 10-4 ATS on Thursday nights.

 

Survivor Pool Plays

Our safe play went 3-0 last week but the risky play on Buccs didn’t pan out.

Safe Plays – Steelers (revenge game) and Texans

Risky Plays – Titans, Vikings, Cowboys

Stay Away – Saints over Eagles, Chargers over Raiders and Packers over Seahawks

 

Pick ‘Em Plays (no spread)

We went 7-7 last week, not good enough to win (despite all the upsets). Let’s get back to our winning ways.

Seahawks, Panthers, Cowboys, Bengals, Vikings, Saints, Titans, Texans, Buccs, Chargers, Cardinals, Steelers, Rams

 

Eagles Play

As always, if the Eagles do not end up in my best bets section (and generally they won’t since I have a rule to never bet them, to much emotionally invested to begin with as well as bias of being my favorite team) I will post what my play is on them anyway.

Another week, same story. Conservative play calling on offense, and idiotic prevent defense calls on defense pave the way for an utter disaster vs the Cowboys. It’s hard to back this team right now thanks to the coaching staff not putting the guys in the best position to execute. There is no creativity in this offense, the line looks horrible, Carson doesn’t look like the MVP-caliber player we saw last year and the defense is just bad. The linebackers are non-existent, the secondary is awful (and injury riddled) and the defensive line is playing well enough right now to make up for the rest of the defense’s shortcomings. Now, they get to travel down to New Orleans and face arguably the best team in football. The Saints offense will overpower our defense and our offense hasn’t shown any signs of being able to score enough to keep up with a team like the Saints. But, this is still the defending super bowl champion that is now being placed back into the “underdog” role. Maybe this is what they needed. Look for Doug to pull out ALL the stops and this game will come down to a garbage score at the end of the game one way or another. The Eagles won’t get the win, but they will keep it very close. Saints 30-27.