Week nine saw us add more to our bankroll. We gained 0.64 units, bringing our total for the year to 14.95 units. Remember, a unit is what your single bet would be, so if you bet $10 a unit, you would be up $149.50 on the year. Our top play on the Lions didn’t pan out, but we cashed in on both of our 2-star bets; as the Steelers and Chargers both won outright.
As I have wrote about before, we have already discussed some key terms and looked at some season win total bets as well. Every week for the entire season I will be listing my best bets for the week, as well as picks and advice for survivor pools and pick ‘em leagues.
3-Stars: 7-4 (+7.11 Units)
2-Stars: 12-7-2 (+7.84 Units)
Total: +14.95 Units for a weighted win percentage of 63.38%
Without further ado, here are the picks:
Top Play (3-Star)
Teaser of Saints +0.5 with ATL/CLE Under 56.5
The Saints are playing on another level right now, so adding them to a teaser where they just have to win (or even tie) is a positive as a bettor. Being 6-0 in games as home favorites with a total over 50 helps too. The under in the Falcons-Browns game I believe is a solid play because Cleveland won’t score a lot. It is not what they do. They do however play somewhat solid defense. I think this game ends in the upper-40s.
Solid Plays (2-Stars)
FitzMagic returned with a vengeance last week and almost brought the Buccs back from disaster. This Buccs team responds well to QB changes so I think they will come out hard for Fitzpatrick again. The Redskins are a classic Jekyll-Hyde team and have lost 10 of their last 11 games in which the total is above 50 as away dogs. The Buccs will win this game somewhat comfortably.
49ers -3 (Monday Night)
This is more of a play against the Giants than anything else. This team is collapsing at the seems and while a bye week is usually a good thing for teams, I think it impacts the Giants negatively. More time to simmer on negative headlines, QB controversies and OBJ tantrums. The 49ers showed spunk with Mullens at the helm and I think they will again against an inferior opponent that doesn’t want to be traveling across country and playing in primetime again.
Survivor Pool Plays
Our safe play went 1-0 last week but the risky play on the Lions and Broncos didn’t pan out.
Safe Plays – Chiefs, Rams, Packers
Risky Plays – Buccs
Stay Away – Eagles over Cowboys, Chargers over Raiders, Indy over Jacksonville
Pick ‘Em Plays (no spread)
We went 7-6 last, ending a very solid run in pick ‘em. Let’s get back to our winning ways.
Steelers, Jets, Falcons, Saints, Buccs, Patriots, Packers, Jaguars, Bears, Chiefs, Chargers, Rams, Eagles, 49ers
As always, if the Eagles do not end up in my best bets section (and generally they won’t since I have a rule to never bet them, to much emotionally invested to begin with as well as bias of being my favorite team) I will post what my play is on them anyway.
Dallas Week! After the bye week, the Eagles return to action for the second half of the season vs the Cowboys. The Cowboys looked awful against an average Titans team and now plays on a short week vs their biggest rival. The Eagles, well rested, should have worked out the kinks that have plagued them so far this season. Not to mention, their line should be healthy again and we get Sproles back. The Eagles are 5-0 against the Cowboys at home with the line of a TD or more (-7 for this game). I fully expect the Eagles to put on one of their more complete showings of the season to remind everyone that they are the defending Super Bowl champions and will be looking to get back to the upper echelon shortly. Eagles win 27-10