We absolutely crushed the Championship Games as all our picks won, including our parlay. All in all, we added 9.55 units, bumping our win total up to 31.90 units ($319.00) on the season. Both underdogs won outright, as we had spread plays on both the Patriots and Rams. The moneyline parlay with 5:1 odds capped off the perfect week.
3-Stars: 14-8 (+14.22 units)
2-Stars: 24-15-2 (+13.68 Units)
1-Stars: 1-1 (+4.00 Units)
Total: +31.90 Units for a weighted win percentage of 63.33%.
Top Play (3-Star)
Patriots +3.5 with Over 50 Teaser
I’d bet this one pretty quickly as the over will likely rise as they always do in national games. I’m not a huge fan on being on the “public” sides of things, but the thinking is a lot like the Patriots-Chiefs game; it’s the Patriots. I do not think Brady and Belichick will lose back-to-back Super Bowls to up-and-coming teams. Putting this play into a teaser gets us the coveted +3.5 points on New England while the over has hit in five of the last six Super Bowls. I wouldn’t think too long or hard about this one. The Patriots are the Evil Empire for a reason, and they will win this game. Patriots 33-27.
Patriots First Half -0.5 (-101 Juice)
This is my favorite bet of the Super Bowl. The Patriots start off hot constantly and will not shy away from the lights of the Super Bowl, seeing as how they are always playing in it. The Rams have started off somewhat slowly of late, and with a young coach and QB, I think nerves get the best of them. The fact that this bet is almost even money, is just a bonus. Look for the Patriots to have over a TD lead at the half.
Solid Plays (2-Star)
Loading up on the Patriots here. Again, I don’t like being on the “public” side, but I really don’t see the Patriots losing this game, thus losing their second straight championship. Brady is too good, Belichick is too smart, and the Rams don’t have that same feel the Eagles did last year (I’m not biased, you’re biased).
PROP BET TIME
I will list all the prop bets I like in the Super Bowl in order of how confident I am in them. I generally recommend betting anywhere from 0.5 to 1 unit on props.
Top Props (1-Star)
- 1716: Patriots 1st TD – Any Other TD (Run, Special Teams, Defensive) +215
- Pats have scored 4 rushing TDs to 2 passing TDs in their past six games. This value is too good to pass up.
- 1047: Team to Score 1st – Patriots -130
- The Pats have scored first in 4 straight games and 5 of last 6; Rams are 3-3.
- 3829: 1st Score of Game – Touchdown -150
- The Pats will score first this game and are a perfect 6 for 6 in scoring a TD before a FG.
- 2609: Will Sony Michel Score a TD – Yes -130
- He’s their number one back right now and has been running extremely well.
Other Props (0.5-Stars)
- 3821: Will the game go to Overtime – Yes +650
- This is worth a flyer bet as both teams went to OT in the Conference Champ games.
- 3827: Will either team have a successful 2-point conversion – Yes +200
- The Rams like to gamble, and the Pats are the Pats; too much value here.
- 3839: The First 1st Down will happen on a – Run Play +135
- Both teams like to attempt to establish the run; I could also see Rams selling out on Brady on third down and New England hitting a draw play.
- 4010: First TD Length – 8 to 15 Yards +165
- It will be 14 yards. Pats TDs have been 14.4 yards on average, Rams TDs have been 9.1 yards on average. Both fall in this range, so the value pays.
- 4025/4039: Player to Score 1st TD of Game – Cooks (+800) and Michel (+500)
- Just playing the averages again.
- 4047/4052: Player to Score Pats 1st TD – Devlin (+1500) and Michel (+250)
- 4056/4061: Player to Score Rams 1st TD – Cooks (+400) and Woods (+400)
- 2631: James White 1st Rush Attempt – Over 3.5 Yards +125
- 2645: Todd Gurley 1st Rush Attempt – Under 3.5 Yards -110
- He’s been banged up and Belichick loves taking away your number one option.
- 1836: Rams First Score – Field Goal +135
- Pretty even split on the year so getting the plus money when we think Rams start out slow is the way to go.
- 2504: Goff First Pass Attempt – Incomplete +150
- Nerves, plain and simple.