Another 2-1 week saw us add 2.55 units to our bankroll and finally get our 3-Star bets back to even. The Falcons took care of business Thursday night as our 3-Star bet over the Panthers, while Sunday saw us split on the Colts and Titans. Tennessee was just bad handicapping on my part as they didn’t show up to play whatsoever vs. the Bengals. We’ll keep the profit train rolling this week as we have another three plays plus a bonus pick on tonight’s game.
3-Star Bets: 4-4 (-1.08 Units)
2-Star Bets: 13-6 (+11.66 Units)
Total: +10.58 Units for a 59.03% Weighted Win Percentage
3-Star NFL Bet
Seahawks -3 @ Bills
The Seahawks have arguably the best offense in the NFL. The Wilson-Metcalf combo is one of the best I can remember in a long time as both are just making you shake your head week after week. This line has moved from -1.5 to -3, and I think that’s because there is a clear gap between these two teams. Defense, or lack thereof, is what currently plagues the Seahawks from being the best team in the NFL, but the Bills are not equipped to really take advantage of that. Josh Allen is a fun and very good young QB, but he’s not the guy you want in what could turn into a high scoring game. The Bills have only been an underdog once this year, and that’s when the Chiefs beat them by 9 at home. This game should be similar as I expect the Seahawks to win by at least a TD. Bet the Seahawks to cover the 3 point spread.
2-Star NFL Bets
Falcons -4 vs Broncos
We’re back on the Falcons wagon this week as they look to continue their improved play since the firing of Dan Quinn. Atlanta is 2-1 since letting Quinn go and should be 3-0 if not for Todd Gurley scoring a TD vs the Lions. Denver is not a very good team, and I think Atlanta has a mission to prove they’re a lot better than 2-6. As the team continues to get more accustomed to Morris’ coaching, I think this Falcons team could make some noise down the stretch. Sharps are backing the Falcons as well, which follows our strategy of betting on sharp money. Another positive in my book is that the total is rising from 47 to 50, something I believe benefits the Falcons. Bet Atlanta to cover 4 points against the Broncos.
Washington -2.5 vs Giants
People are quick to laugh at the Football Teamers, but this isn’t a bad team. Their front 7 is very good on defense, and Gibson looks like a solid RB. Ron Rivera is a great coach and gets his guys to play hard every week. On the flip side, the Giants come in off two brutal losses by 1 point to the Eagles and 2 points to the Buccaneers. Joe Judge appears to be turning this Giants team around, but I think the Football Team coming off a bye and at home should have the advantage against a Giants team coming off back-to-back tough, hard-fought losses. This is a gut play more than anything but one I feel strongly about. Bet Washington to win by more than a field goal.
Pick’Em League Bets (no spreads)
9-5 again, back to double digits this week.
Packers, Seahawks, Falcons, Bears, Vikings, Colts, Chiefs, Texans, Football Team, Raiders, Steelers, Cardinals, Buccs, Patriots
Survivor Pool Bets
Top play of Eagles squeaks by.
Top Play: Steelers over Cowboys
Secondary Plays: Patriots over Jets and Texans over Jaguars
Used: Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, Cowboys, Rams, Browns, Buccs, Chiefs
Bonus Thursday Night Thoughts
I firmly believe in not betting just because it’s the only game on. Green Bay is one of the best teams in the NFC, and the 49ers might be the most depleted team in the NFL. On paper, the Packers should easily cover the 7-point spread tonight. But when something is too good to be true, it usually is. This has the makings of one of those games where the favorite plays extremely sluggish and the game is way closer than expected. In my opinion, the Packers will win this game, but whether or not they cover is a different story. My prediction is the Packers will be up by 3-4 points in the 4th quarter, and it’ll come down to their defense forcing a turnover and getting a backdoor field goal cover at the end. Packers win 27-20.