The winning train is back as we went 2-1 last week including a win on our 3-Star top NFL bet. Cincinnati looked to have the game locked up for a win but gave up a winning TD drive which ended in a missed extra point, giving us a win on the Bengals +3.5. Our 2-Star bet on the 49ers was a wire-to-wire win as they boatraced the Patriots. The only loss of the weekend was on the Bills who just couldn’t score a single TD against the lowly Jets and were one missed FG away from covering the spread anyway. But, a loss is a loss, and we’ll take our +2.55 Units from last week and keep the train chugging through the NFL schedule.
3-Star Bets: 3-4 (-3.81 Units)
2-Star Bets: 12-5 (+11.84 Units)
Total: +8.03 Units for a 57.7% Weighted Win Percentage
3-Star NFL Bet
Falcons +2 @ Panthers (Thursday Night)
I don’t love betting on Thursday night games as the short week makes things more complicated to handicap. However, this week I think there is a lot of value on the visiting Falcons. The most important factor is the heavy reverse line movement that is dragging this line down. Carolina opened as a 3-point favorite, and despite receiving 60% of tickets, the line has dropped to 2 (and lower some places, so act fast). I believe the Falcons win this game outright, so the line as long as it’s the Falcons receiving any points is a 3-Star play for me. If 4th quarters didn’t exist, we’d be looking at a 4-3 Falcons team with a ton of offensive talent. But you have to play 60-minutes, and the Falcons once again had a bonehead mistake cost them the game last week. I think the team is angry and will look to exorcise some demons tonight. Bet the Falcons to cover the spread (anywhere from pk or better).
2-Star NFL Bets
Colts -2.5 @ Lions
The Colts are due for a complete game from both units, and I think it comes in the dome versus the Lions this week. Sharp money is backing the Colts and getting them at less than a field goal is a major plus. Detroit has one impressive win this season and against better teams have struggled to play defense. This will benefit Philip Rivers and the rest of the Colts offense, and I think the defense will be enough to slow Galloday and Swift. Bet the Colts to beat the Lions by 3 or more.
Titans -5.5 @ Bengals
I don’t love backing two road favorites (and three road teams in general this week), but I believe there is a lot of value in this line. The Titans have an explosive yet pounding offense that should exploit a lot of the Bengals’ weaknesses. Burrow won’t have much time to throw the ball this week while the Bengals seem to have some morale issues. Not wanting to play is a bad thing when Derrick Henry is charging at you. Expect this to be somewhat close at the start with the Titans pulling away late to win by double digits. Bet Tennessee to cover the 5.5 point spread.
Pick’Em League Bets (no spreads)
9-5 won’t win, back to double digits this week.
Falcons, Colts, Packers, Bills, Titans, Raiders, Chiefs, Rams, Saints, 49ers, Eagles, Chargers, Steelers, Buccs
Survivor Pool Bets
Top play of Bills survives as the bet against the Jets strategy seems like a winner.
Top Play: Eagles over Cowboys
Secondary Plays: Chiefs over Jets, Buccs over Giants, Chargers over Broncos
Used: Bills, Dolphins, Cowboys, Rams, Browns, Buccs, Chiefs