The NFL has been a roller coaster for us this season as we started off red hot but the last two weeks have knocked us down. We’re still positive on the season though, and the bets will keep coming. Always remember not to bet more than you can handle and to practice good bankroll discipline. Week 6 saw us drop all three games as, once again, our 3-star bet forgot how to play football. Both 2-star favorites won but didn’t cover which is especially aggravating. We power on, and I like our slate for this Sunday.
3-Star Bets: 2-4 (-6.54 Units)
2-Star Bets: 11-4 (+12.02 Units)
Total: +5.48 Units for a 56.02% Weighted Win Percentage
3-Star NFL Bet
Bengals +3.5 vs Browns
The Browns got boat-raced last week by the Steelers and come into this game feeling like the little brother who got shoved through a wall after trash talking his big brother. Meanwhile, the Bengals keep playing good teams close. Besides the blowout to the Ravens two weeks ago, the Bengals have had leads against the Colts and Eagles (not a good team, I know) and only lost by 5 in Cleveland Week 2. Cleveland is also notoriously bad coming off divisional losses when they face the AFC North again the following week. They are 2-7 in those games and 0-8-1 ATS. This line has dropped from 4 down to 3.5 (and 3 some places, so act fast), despite only 28% of tickets on the Bengals. This is a prime case of reverse line movement. I look for Cinci to not only keep this game within a field goal but to win outright to give Joe Burrow his first AFC North win. Bet the Bengals getting 3.5 points (and sprinkle some on the money line).
2-Star NFL Bets
49ers +3 @ Patriots
San Francisco found their groove against the Rams last week, and I think it’s a sign that they’re back to looking more like the 2019 squad that won the NFC Championship. New England meanwhile had their hands full of a bad Broncos team, losing 18-12 when their defense gave up 0 touchdowns. Like most Cam Newtown led teams, if you can force him to beat you with his arm, you have a very good chance of winning. The 49ers will take away the Patriots’ run game and are disciplined enough to not get fooled by motion and trick plays. I don’t think this game will even be close honestly and look for the 49ers to win this one outright. Bet the 49ers getting a field goal.
Bills -10 @ Jets
I think we’re in a time when you really can’t make lines against the Jets high enough. This is a very bad team that doesn’t seem to want to win. They have a horrible coach and is-he-elite Joe Flacco is well past his prime. The Bills meanwhile are one of the best teams in football, and the only real way to beat them is to make Josh Allen into a passer. The Jets can’t stop anything right now, so the Bills will most likely run the ball down their throats. I expect this to be at least a 2-touchdown game and honestly would be a little shocked if they Bills win by less than 20 points. Bet the Bills giving 10 to the Jets.
Pick’Em NFL Bets (no spreads)
10-4 is pretty good, let’s get back to 12 this week.
Eagles, Saints, Bills, Bengals, Cowboys, Texans, Lions, Steelers, Raiders, Chiefs, Chargers, 49ers, Seahawks, Rams
Survivor Pool Bets
Top Play of Dolphins easily advances.
Top Play: Bills over Jets
Secondary Plays: Chiefs over Broncos
Used: Dolphins, Cowboys, Rams, Browns, Bucs, Chiefs