We’re only four weeks into the NFL season but we have already had two perfect weeks. Another 4-0 week added 8.19 units to our total bankroll on the season, bringing it up to 15.66 units. Starting Week 2, our bets have gone 11 and 1 (lesson learned about betting against Mahomes on National TV). Our 3-Star play last week hit easily as the Panthers won by 10 as 3-point dogs. The 2-Star plays weren’t very dramatic either, as both the Bengals and Vikings won handily while the Saints somewhat squeaked by with a 6-point win. Let’s keep the train rolling into week 5 with another three plays this week.
3-Star Bets: 2-2 (-0.54 Units)
2-Star Bets: 10-1 (+16.2 Units)
Total: +15.66 Units for a 76.5% Weighted Win Percentage
3-Star NFL Bet
Colts -1.5 @ Browns
The Colts are flying under the radar as their offense isn’t necessarily great. But they have a great defense and offensive line, which will keep them in every game. Cleveland meanwhile, has one of the best rushing attacks in football and just hung 49 points on the Cowboys in Dallas. So ask yourself this question, why are the Browns underdogs at home? The answer is simple. Indianapolis has an elite rush defense. They have given up the 3rd fewest rush yards per game among teams who have played 4 games so far this season. That doesn’t bode well for a Browns team that relies on the run to limit Baker making mistakes.
Digging deeper, the Browns three wins this season have gone against teams that are a combined 3-8-1 and more importantly those wins have came against the 2nd, 5th, and 9th worst teams against the run. I think Indy is able to stifle this potent Browns ground game and will win somewhat comfortably on the road. Bet the Colts laying 1.5 against the Browns.
2-Star NFL Bets
Panthers +1.5 @ Falcons
Carolina has treated us well this season and we’ll look to cash in on them again this week versus a crumbling Falcons team. There is sharp action on the Panthers this week which has driven the line down from 3.5 to where it is now. I think Atlanta has given up on Dan Quinn while Carolina seems to like playing for Matt Rhule. Quinn will be lucky to keep his job much longer and this could possibly be his last game as coach this Sunday. I like the Panthers to limit the big plays for the Falcons while Bridgewater and the offense do what’s necessary to get the divisional road win. Bet the Panthers getting 1.5.
Eagles +7 @ Steelers
I don’t like doing this. I never like betting on the Eagles as I already have enough emotions risked on the outcome. However, I think 7 points is way to many for the Steelers to be laying here. This has the makings of a low scoring game as both teams feature amazing defensive lines. In games like that, I like getting a touchdown. Philly’s offense seemed to turn a corner last week too and if Doug can find the right balance between passive and too aggressive Carson Wentz should continue to get better. Bet the Eagles getting 7 on Sunday.
Pick’Em NFL Bets (no spreads)
12-3 should have been good enough to win.
Buccs, Panthers, Chiefs, Broncos, Rams, Jaguars, Bills (if they play), Cardinals, Eagles, Ravens, 49ers, Cowboys, Colts, Seahawks, Saints
Survivor Pool Bets
Top play of Rams over Giants survives.
Top Play: Cowboys over Giants
Secondary Plays: Ravens over Bengals, Chiefs over Raiders
Used: Rams, Browns, Buccs, Chiefs