Another week, another positive addition to our bankroll. Our bets went 3-1 on the week, adding 2.46 units to bring our total up to 7.47 units. Our lone loss did come on the 3-star bet with the Ravens never really being in the game vs. the Chiefs. The sharp money was all over Baltimore, but the Chiefs were just too good and exploited Baltimore’s weaknesses. Sunday was a different story though as we won all three of our bets. The Browns easily covered the 7 point spread vs. the Football Team while Big you-know-what Nick led the Bears not only to a cover, but an outright win. Seattle finished off the sweep vs. the Cowboys thanks to Russ being the best QB in football right now. Week 4 has some more good plays, so let’s jump right back into the action.
3-Star Bets: 1-2 (-3.27 Units)
2-Star Bets: 7-1 (+10.74 Units)
Total: +7.47 Units for a 68% Weighted Win Percentage
3-Star NFL Bet
Panthers +3 vs. Cardinals
This is a game that the sharps are pounding right now. The line opened at 3.5 but has already moved down to 3 despite the Panthers only receiving 29% of the tickets. That means major money flowing in on Carolina. Arizona got hit back down to earth a bit last week, losing to the Lions, and Carolina got into the win column with a 5-point road win over the Chargers. I’ve liked the Panthers all year so far, and despite them only being 1-2, I think they have what it takes to slow down Kyler Murray and win this game outright. Bet the Panthers getting 3 points.
2-Star NFL Bets
Bengals -3 vs. Jaguars
Joe Burrow is improving each week and looks every bit the part of a franchise QB. He just needs an offensive line that won’t get him killed everytime he drops back. Jacksonville’s defense has been picked apart the past two weeks, giving up an average of 32 points per game. I think the Bengals will be able to score here, and if the Jags are missing DJ Chark again, their offense will struggle to keep up. Bet the Bengals laying 3 points.
Saints -4 @ Lions
This bet seems like a suck bet at first glance. The Saints are a public team, have a couple of stars on the roster, and are getting over 71% of tickets right now. However, the sharps are hitting the Saints right now and 4 points seems to be a slight overreaction to the Saints play lately. This line should probably be closer to 6 or 7, but everyone is panicking about Drew Brees’ arm. I think New Orleans comes out ready to play and to get back to .500. Detroit playing in a dome only helps our case. Bet the Saints giving 4 points.
Vikings +4.5 @ Texans
Both of these teams are spiraling. Minnesota’s defense has not been up to par, but their offense (outside of week two) has been able to score points. The Texans, on the other hand, have not been able to score. In fact, they’ve scored the 5th fewest points in the league so far. It’s a small sample size, but since 2008 there have only been four instances of two winless teams facing in week 4 or later where the home team is favored. Only 1 of those 4 teams have covered the spread. This bodes well for Minnesota, and while they might not win, I don’t believe this is more than a field goal game either way. Bet the Vikings to cover the 4.5 point spread.
Pick’Em NFL Bets (no spreads)
9-7 isn’t going to cut it, we’ll get back to double digit wins this week.
Broncos, Colts, Saints, Panthers, Bengals, Cowboys, Vikings, Seahawks, Bucs, Ravens, Rams, Chiefs, Raiders, 49ers, Packers
Survivor Pool Plays
Top play of Browns over Redskins survives.
Top Play: Rams over Giants
Secondary Plays: Ravens over Football Team, Bengals over Jaguars