Week one did not go as planned as we went 1-2 and lost our top play on the Falcons. The line actually moved to Falcons -1.5 before kick so the smart money was going in on Atlanta, but they continue to be a disappointing squad. Carolina held a 30-27 lead with eight minutes left in the game but gave up a late TD to miss the cover by a single point. Our lone win was on the Titans as the squeaked by with a 2-point win that shouldn’t have been that close if they could just make a field goal or four. We’ll do better with our NFL Bets this week as we have some solid sharp money plays.
3-Star Bets: 0-1 (-3 Units)
2-Star Bets: 1-1 (-0.18 Units)
Total: -3.18 Units for a 28.6% Weighted Win Percentage
3-Star NFL Bet
The Colts did NOT look good last week, losing as a heavy favorite to the Jaguars. New QB and a season ending injury to their starting RB is not a promising week one combo. However, going home against a Vikings team that was just throttled defensively last week should bode well for the new look Colts. Despite only receiving 22% of bets, the Colts have jumped from -2.5 to -3. This is significant because 3 is a key number, so a line moving up to that, despite few bets, means major money flowing on Indy. Bet on the Colts to cover the -3.
2-Star NFL Bets
Chiefs -2.5 with Bills PK Teaser
The Chiefs looked amazing versus an overmatched Texans team on Thursday night while the Bills took it to the outclassed Jets. Getting the Chiefs at -2.5 against a Chargers team that was lucky to escape Cinci with a win paired with the Bills to just beat the Dolphins is a solid Teaser play for week two. Bet a 6-point teaser with Chiefs -2.5 and Bills PK.
I don’t know why, but I’m going back to the Falcons well for week two. This is more of a follow the money play as the Falcons have gone from a 7-point underdog to a 4.5 point dog despite receiving fewer than 50% of bets. Moving past the key numbers of 7 and 6 means major money flowing by sharps on Atlanta to cover the spread versus the Cowboys. I think this line could even flirt with -3 up until game time when the public comes in to play the Cowboys. Bet the Falcons to cover the 4.5 point spread.
A rare 4-bet week has us backing the Ravens against the Texans. Sharps are driving this line up as it’s moved from 5 to 7. I think the Ravens should be able to handle the Texans a lot like the Chiefs did in Week One. This Houston team took a major step back from last season as their offensive line is still quite bad and they lack creativity in their offensive game plan. Lamar and Co. should feast on this team and win by double digits. Bet the Ravens to win and cover -7.
Pick’Em NFL Bets (no spreads)
A 9-7 week isn’t winning anyone money. On to Week Two.
Bengals, Eagles, Buccs, Steelers, Falcons, 49ers, Bills, Colts, Packers, Giants, Titans, Cardinals, Ravens, Chiefs, Seahawks, Raiders
Survivor Pool Bets
Top play of Chiefs over Texans pans out.
Top Play: Buccs over Panthers
Secondary Plays: Ravens over Texans, Bills over Dolphins