Another 1-2 week has the train slow crawling now. The 3-Star play on the Ravens was flat out wrong, I should have known better than betting against Bellichek when everyone is against him. As for the 2-Star bets, the Colts won easily on Thursday night as the trend we found paid dividends. The Seahawks, on the other hand, let us down once again as Russell Wilson turned the ball over way too much again and lost by 7. I need to do a better job and it’ll start this week.
3-Star Bets: 4-6 (-7.08 Units)
2-Star Bets: 15-8 (+11.3 Units)
Total: +4.22 Units for a Weighted Win Percentage of 52.92%
3-Star NFL Bet
Colts -1 vs Packers
Indianapolis has been a team I’ve been backing almost all season, and it continues this week. This play is almost entirely based on some weird line movement that qualifies as RLM. Only 40% of tickets are on the Colts, but this line has dropped from Packers -2.5 to Colts -1, meaning sharp money is taking the home team here. It makes sense as to why, the Packers and Aaron Rodgers don’t fair well against great defenses. They were blown out by Tampa Bay and the blue print was easy, get pressure on Rodgers. Indy is 6th in the league in Hurry% and combined with a solid secondary and a defense in general that doesn’t make mistakes, and I think the Packers will have difficulty moving the ball. Follow the money here and bet on the Colts. Bet Indy to cover the 1 point.
2-Star NFL Bets
Dolphins -3 @ Broncos (buy the half point if needed)
Miami has been playing great football, and Tua is doing everything they ask of him. This is a well coached football team going against a bad Broncos squad. The weather in Denver does not appear to be bad on Sunday, and I think Miami comes in and wins by more than a field goal here. There are some sharp money indicators on the Dolphins as well, which makes the bet even nicer for us. Bet the Dolphins -3 in Denver.
Vikings -7 vs Cowboys
Andy Dalton should be back for Dallas this week, but I do not believe that is worth the 2.5 point line movement Vegas gave the Cowboys. This game should be closer to a 10 point spread as the Cowboys’ rushing defense is nonexistent and Dalvin Cook must be licking his chops. Dallas is also receiving 61% of bets which qualifies them as a “trendy dog” in my book. And you always bet against the trendy dog. Minnesota has been playing very well once they realized that running with Cook is better than passing with Cousins. Meanwhile, Dallas just wants this season to be over and has to look forward to their Thanksgiving game in four days. This team has bailed on McCarthy, and I think the season continues to spiral downward. Bet the Vikings -7 on Sunday.
Pick’Em League Bets (no spreads)
An 8-6 week won’t cut it.
Cardinals, Eagles, Falcons, Lions, Texans, Steelers, Colts, Redskins, Ravens, Vikings, Dolphins, Chargers, Chiefs, Bucs
Survivor Pool Bets
Top play of Packers held on but gave us a heart attack.
Top Play: Chargers over Jets
Secondary Plays: Steelers over Jags, Vikings over Cowboys
Used: Packers, Steelers, Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, Cowboys, Rams, Browns, Bucs, Chiefs