Week 9 did not treat us well as we dropped 3.18 units after a 1-2 showing. Russell Wilson channeled his inner Carson Wentz as he turned the ball over way too much against the Bills. The Falcons took care of business, but the Football Teamers got down too much early on to come back from. The good news is we’re still alive in the survivor pool thanks to the Steelers barely escaping with a win vs. Dallas. We own losses just like we celebrate wins, so we move on to a week that a lot of sharps are struggling with.
3-Star Bets: 4-5 (-4.08 Units)
2-Star Bets: 14-7 (+11.48 Units)
Total: +7.40 Units for a 55.66% Weighted Win Percentage
3-Star NFL Bet
Ravens -6.5 @ Patriots
New England is not a very good team, and the Ravens are the last team they’d want to play against. Baltimore’s defense is one of the more complex units in the game, which does not bode well for Cam Newton and this lackluster Patriots offense. The Ravens are playing from behind in the division now that the Steelers are still undefeated and own a win over Baltimore already, so they will look to exert themselves from here on out. I believe the Ravens will keep the Patriots under 17 points in this game, setting up Lamar and company in good position as the offense averages over 28 a game. Bet on the Ravens to win by more than 7 points on Sunday Night.
2-Star NFL Bets
Colts -1 @ Titans (Thursday Night)
This is a trend find of mine, so we will make it a 2-star bet. In games where the home team has a win percentage of 75% or more, it’s week 10 or later in the season, when playing a divisional opponent where the spread is less than a field goal on either side, those teams are 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS. Now eight games is not a large sample size, but the logic of this trend checks out. When good teams late in the season are playing a divisional opponent at home and the spread is not very high, it makes sense that Vegas believes those teams will lose. The Colts are only receiving 42% of tickets currently, but the line has moved from Titans -2 to Colts -1.
Outside a dominant win against the Bills coming back from their 2-week COVID break, the Titans have lost to a bad Bengals team, allowed 17 points to an inept Bears offense, went to OT against a bad Texans team, and were being blown up by the Steelers before coming back late in the game. They also only beat the Vikings by 1 and barely beat the Broncos and Jaguars too. Tennessee is a prototypical good team that is overhyped by their record. Indy, meanwhile, has a great run defense, and if the offense takes care of the ball, they can beat anyone. Bet the Colts tonight to win.
Seahawks +2 @ Rams
Since 2016, the Seahawks are 15-3 SU and 12-4-2 ATS following a 10 point or worse loss. This was a team that was red hot until losing in OT to the Cardinals three weeks ago and after being dismantled by the Bills last week, it’s time for Russell to get back on track. His turnovers are very uncommon for him and are the reason they lost to both the Cardinals and Bills. Russell will get those in check while Pete Carroll needs to figure out how to get the defense back on track. The Rams are another one of those teams that I haven’t been overly impressed by, and I think this Seattle team will come out of LA with a win on Sunday. Bet the Seahawks to cover the 2-point spread.
Pick’Em League Bets (no spreads)
8-6 is not good enough, but that was one wonky week.
Colts, Steelers, Lions, Texans, Packers, Eagles, Bucs, Raiders, Bills, Seahawks, Saints, Ravens, Chargers, Vikings
Survivor Pool Bets
Top play of Steelers again squeaks by.
Top Play: Packers over Jaguars
Secondary Plays: Saints over 49ers and Ravens over Patriots
Used: Steelers, Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, Cowboys, Rams, Browns, Bucs, Chiefs