We’ve cooled down since a ridiculously hot start, but we still put together a winning week last time out. The Cardinals were a bad choice for our 3-Star play as the Brees-led Saints didn’t miss a beat and plucked them. However, both our 2-Star plays cashed out as the Giants and Titans both covered their spreads. We added 0.64 Units, which isn’t great but it’s still a win. On to week nine.
- 3-Star Plays: 7-2 (+13.11 Units)
- 2-Star Plays: 11-5 (+10.02 Units)
- TOTAL: +23.13 Units for a weighted win percentage of 72.9%
Giants +7 (Monday Night)
The Giants have been playing good football, and Saquon is a nightmare for any team to face. This line opened at 9 and has moved to 7 despite only 29% of bets being on the Giants. Dallas is feeling really good about themselves after crushing the Eagles, but the bye week following that win actually hurts them. They rest for two weeks on a blow out win and face an opponent that they aren’t scared of playing. Add in that, since 2014, the Cowboys are 2-4 ATS following a bye week and 3-3 SU despite being favorites in five of the six games. I’m not saying the Giants will win this game, but it will be more like a field goal game than a touchdown one.
We’re going to keep riding the Titans train despite the heart attacks they’ve been causing. The Panthers got punched in the face last week vs. the 49ers, and questions finally start to arise about Kyle Allen. This line opened at 4.5 and has moved to 3.5 despite only 32% of bets being on Tennessee. Teams coming off a 35 point or worse loss the week before are 5-10-1 ATS since 2017, and 0-2 ATS as favorites. The Titans play a physical enough defense to keep McCaffrey in check, and I anticipate them winning this game, so getting the hook makes this a solid bet.
I must be out of my mind. The Dolphins, the winless Miami catastrophe, and I’m suggesting you bet on them. Miami actually hasn’t looked as awful lately as they did to begin the year. I think the players that are now on the field are using these games as tryouts for their NFL future, so the level of play is increasing. The Jets meanwhile have been a disaster since somehow upsetting the Cowboys, and Sam Darnold is seeing Casper the Friendly Ghost out there. This line opened as high as 6.5 before being bet all the way down to 3, and only 34% of bets are on Miami. The sharp money is on Miami, so we will follow suit.
Survivor Pool Plays
- Top Play: Bills over Redskins
- “Safe” Plays: Seahawks over Bucs
- Risky Plays: Dolphins over Jets, Titans over Panthers, Jags over Texans
- Stay Away: 49ers over Cardinals, Patriots over Ravens, Packers over Chargers, Jets over Dolphins
Pick’Em League Plays
12-3 last week might have put you in the money. Let’s continue that streak.
49ers, Jaguars, Bills, Titans, Eagles, Chiefs, Dolphins, Steelers, Raiders, Seahawks, Browns, Packers, Ravens, Cowboys