Someone poured the ice bucket on our hot streak, and his name is Mitchell Trubisky. Our first losing week of the NFL season saw us drop 1.27 units as the Bears and Bills couldn’t take care of business. However, we won our 3-Star play thanks to some great goal line defense by the Titans. Our top plays have been great on the year and our year-to-date total stands at +22.49 units.
- 3-Star Plays: 7-1 (+16.11 Units)
- 2-Star Plays: 9-5 (+6.38 Units)
- TOTAL: +22.49 Units for a weighted win percentage of 75.5%
The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS this season and have won their last three games outright as underdogs. Winning in New Orleans as a 10.5 point underdog doesn’t seem likely, but I like Arizona to keep this game within a touchdown. Kyler Murray has been very good, and the offense is rolling, averaging 29 points per game the last three weeks. Drew Brees is expected to play on Sunday, but Bridgewater hasn’t been a problem for the Saints. I think there might be some rust with Brees, and a changing of the guard on offense when the team has been hot could cause some stale moments. Murray and the Cardinals will score enough points to keep this game in the single digits.
Detroit comes into this game losing a heart-breaker to the Packers and then getting trounced by the Vikings. Add in that they surprisingly traded their starting safety, and this team is primed to fall apart, especially against a “bad” team like the Giants. Despite bets being even on this game, the line has dropped from 7.5 and even has reached 6.5 at some books. Teams coming off back-to-back division losses are 5-8 ATS as favorites of over 7 points in their next game. This number shrinks to 1-5 ATS in the last six occurrences. With Barkley back in the fold, the Giants will be able to score enough against this Lions team to keep the score within a touchdown.
Hopping back on the Titans wagon here with Ryan Tannehill under center. Tampa Bay’s defense has given up an average of 35 points a game in the last four games, and ever since the shocking upset over the Rams, they’re 0-2. Teams still remember that game, and as we cashed in their game vs the Saints, the lines and public are still buying into this squad. Sixty two percent of bets are on the Bucs, but the line hasn’t moved off the dead number of 2.5. A dead number, remember, is when the spread lies between key numbers. Generally, any line under 3 points will move rather fluidly since not many games are won by one or two points. Tennessee will pick up another win here, most likely by 6-10 points.
Survivor Pool Plays
- Top Play: Rams over Bengals
- “Safe” Plays: Vikings over Skins and Steelers over Dolphins
- Risky Plays: Giants over Lions, Titans over Bucs
- Stay Away: Lions over Giants, Jags over Jets, 49ers over Panthers
Pick’Em League Plays
7-7 week last week as our upset plays didn’t hit, a very chalky and public result in week 7.
Vikings, Giants, Titans, Bears, Seahawks, Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, Saints, Texans, Panthers, Colts, Patriots, Packers, Steelers