Thanksgiving is a time for giving thanks; it’s also apparently a time for Money Makers to clean sweep you into padding your holiday shopping budget. We hit all three of our plays, as well as hitting our parlay for what should have been a massive payday for everyone (+6.37 units with another possible 6 units won on the parlay). The Seahawks took care of Kirk and the Vikings (Kirk is now 0-8 on MNF), the Saints handled the Falcons, and the Tannehill led Titans continued their roll. We look to continue the winning this week.
- 3-Star Plays: 10-4 (+15.3 Units)
- 2-Star Plays: 17-7-1 (+16.94 Units)
- TOTAL: +32.24 Units for a weighted win percentage of 71.1%
We continue our fade of the Colts as we back the Bucs this week laying a field goal. This line opened as low as pick ’em and now has moved all the way to Bucs -3 despite only 43% of tickets on Tampa. This means there is some significant sharp movement involved. Tampa can score with anyone as long as Jameis Winston is throwing the ball to the guys wearing the same jersey as he is. I think the Bucs win this game, and we’ll follow the smart money as well.
Rams Pk (Sunday Night)
This line makes no sense. It opened at Seahawks -3 and has been bet all the way down to a pick despite only 29% of tickets on LA. That is some serious money pounding the home team Rams. The only reason this isn’t a 3-star bet is because it is hard to trust Goff, and Seattle is so good in primetime. This is purely a follow the money type play, which means it’s the smart play.
Carolina just lost at home to the woeful Redskins. A loss so bad, they fired their player-favorite coach. They now travel to play their divisional rival Falcons in game where motivation will be hard to find. Motivation and effort is more important than talent when you get to this level of play (as we saw last week with the Dolphins taking down the Eagles). I don’t think Carolina wants to play this game, and that’s not good when you know the Falcons are ready to pounce on their divisional prey.
Houston is fresh off a season defining win against New England and will look to really solidify themselves as a legit contender in the AFC. To do this, they need to really push the gas pedal down against the lesser competition. In Drew Lock’s first NFL start, the Broncos picked up a win vs. the Chargers despite Lock throwing for just 134 yards on 28 attempts. He will need to do significantly more against the Texans to even keep this game close. Houston will win this one by at least two touchdowns.
Survivor Pool Plays
- Top Play: Texans over Broncos
- “Safe” Play: Packers over Redskins
- Risky Plays: Bucs over Colts, Falcons over Panthers
- Stay Away: Browns over Bengals, Ravens over Bills, Jets over Dolphins
Pick’Em League Plays
10-6 last week with some good upset calls on the Texans and Bengals.
Bears, Ravens, Packers, Texans, 49ers, Browns, Falcons, Vikings, Dolphins, Bucs, Chargers, Chiefs, Steelers, Titans, Rams, Eagles