Not the big week we’ve been growing accustomed to, but a winning week nonetheless. The Broncos as our 3-Star play was an epic disaster, no way around that. We were saved though by both our two stars winning somewhat comfortably; including our first total of the year. We added 0.64 units to the bank roll last week and will look to add even more in Week 13.
- 3-Star Plays: 9-4 (+12.57 Units)
- 2-Star Plays: 15-7-1 (+13.30 Units)
- TOTAL: +25.87 Units for a weighted win percentage of 68.7%
Seahawks -3 (Monday Night)
This is more of a play against the Vikings than it is on the Seahawks. Seattle escaped with a win last week against Philadelphia and gets to go home and play in front of the 12th man in primetime. Minnesota, on the other hand, is coming off a bye week after almost losing to the hapless Broncos. Kirk Cousins in primetime games is 1-4 straight up and 1-3-1 ATS as an underdog. That number climbs to 2-6 (2-5-1 ATS) in games that aren’t played at 1:00 in his Minnesota career. Kirk doesn’t perform well under the lights, and Seattle is a very difficult place to win at in general. This will have a playoff atmosphere, so look for Russell Wilson and the gang to win this one rather comfortably.
The Saints don’t like losing to divisional opponents, much less getting embarrassed like they did vs. the Falcons in Week 10. Since 2015, the Saints are 6-0 ATS (4-2 SU) in divisional revenge games, with both the straight up losses coming as an underdog. Atlanta, on the other hand, is scrambling after getting handled by the Bucs just when they thought they were turning things around. I look for New Orleans to have much more juice in this game, and the revenge factor will be strong. Saints win by at least 10 points.
Titans +3 (buy the half point)
Anyone want to guess which QB has the most fantasy points since Week 7 that isn’t named Lamar Jackson? If you guessed Ryan Tannehill, you’d be correct. The benching of Mariota has reignited this Titans offense, and Tannehill has been playing really well. Add in the line move from 3.5 to 2.5 (dropping under perhaps the most key number in betting of 3) and you’ve got a recipe for success. Tennessee will pull off the small upset, so even a split bet of 1-unit on the spread and 1-unit on the money line could be in order here.
Thanksgiving Day Parlay
Bears -3 with Bills +7 and Saints -7
As you sit around watching games and eating too much food, drop a small bet on this parlay. Should be standard 6:1 odds.
Survivor Pool Plays
- Top Play: Chiefs over Raiders
- “Safe” Plays: Eagles over Dolphins, Saints over Falcons
- Risky Plays: Seahawks over Vikings, Titans over Colts
- Stay Away: Cowboys over Bills, Packers over Giants, Ravens over 49ers, Patriots over Texans
Pick’Em League Plays
A 6-8 week makes me want to vomit, that’s my bad. Let’s win it this week.
Bears, Bills, Saints, Packers, Panthers, 49ers, Titans, Eagles, Chiefs, Jaguars, Bengals, Cardinals, Chargers, Steelers, Texans, Seahawks