We’re back to our winning ways! Our 3-Star play on the Lions/Cardinals teaser hit despite Stafford not playing, and we pushed on the Browns giving 3 points. Adding 2.73 units to our bankroll is never a bad thing, so let’s look to stay on the winning track for week 11.
- 3-Star Plays: 8-3 (+12.84 Units)
- 2-Star Plays: 12-6-1 (+9.84 Units)
- TOTAL: +22.68 Units for a weighted win percentage of 69.6%
TEASER: Falcons +11.5 with Saints +0.5
I really like the Falcons straight up this week. Enough so that I’d recommend betting them straight as well as in this teaser. However, with the teaser we get Atlanta getting a key teaser number of 11.5 against the Panthers and the Saints just needing to win (or tie) against the Bucs. Atlanta is only receiving 36% of bets, yet the number has dropped off 7, blew past 6, and is now at 5.5. This suggests big money pouring in on the Falcons who seem to have fixed their defense for the moment. The Saints on the other hand are coming off a “bad” loss to the Falcons in a game that saw their offense get shut down and their offensive line was destroyed. I think Sean Payton gets the team back on track this week, and they’ll look to stomp the Buccaneers.
The Dolphins at the beginning of the year looked horrible. They were a team that didn’t want any part of stepping foot on the field. However, and to their coaching staff’s credit, they have looked like a different team these past couple of weeks. The guys on the team now want to be there (or want to show they belong in NFL for other teams to see), and their effort proves it. They now face a Bills team that has been exposed as fraudulent. Despite being 6-3, the Bills six wins have come against teams with a combined 12-44 record. This line dropped from 7.5 down to 6 despite only 36% of tickets on Miami. An upset could be brewing, but this has all the makings of an ugly 16-13 Bills win.
Browns -3 (Thursday Night)
This is a game that my gut and brain have different opinions on. Everything points to a Steelers win here; they’re playing better, they force turnovers (a weakness for the Browns), and they’re playing for a playoff spot. However, when things look to be so one-sided, that’s when you run to the other side. This line opened at 2.5 but has moved to 3 despite only 38% of bets on Cleveland. Also, teams coming off upset wins the week before and face a short turnaround to their next game (i.e. playing on Thursday night) are 2-7 SU and 2-6-1 ATS in the last nine occurrences including three straight losses on Thursday Night. Hold your nose and bet on Baker and the gang to tie together two straight wins.
Survivor Pool Plays
Should we even continue…last week probably brutalized every pool you were in with the Colts and Saints losing.
- Top Play: Vikings over Broncos
- “Safe” Plays: 49ers over Cardinals and Raiders over Bengals
- Risky Plays: Falcons over Panthers and Browns over Steelers
- Stay Away: Bills over Dolphins, Ravens over Texans, Rams over Bears and Chiefs over Chargers
Pick’Em League Plays
A 5-8 week last week is brutal, but when three heavy favorites lose outright, things get wonky.
Browns, Cowboys, Saints, Falcons, Jaguars, Vikings, Jets, Dolphins, Ravens, 49ers, Eagles, Raiders, Rams, Chiefs