Sorry about missing the Conference Championships two weeks ago. Life got in the way. But we’re back and ready to dominate the Super Bowl just like we did last year (we won almost 7 units between the game and prop bets).
- 3-Star Plays: 12-6-1 (+14.76 Units)
- 2-Star Plays: 19-13-2 (+8.58 Units)
- TOTAL: +23.34 Units for a weighted win percentage of 62.7%
This is one of those bets where my heart, gut, and brain all agree. The AFC Championship started as good as the Titans could have hoped for, building a 10-point lead and then handing the ball to Derrick Henry for the rest of the game. What we saw, though, is this Chiefs offense can score in bunches – and do so very quickly. The same things happened versus the Texans in the Divisional Round. San Francisco is built in a similar mold as the Titans in the sense that they are not suited to play from behind. Jimmy Garoppolo is 17-of-27 in the playoffs so far. Let that sink in. He’s only thrown 27 passes through two games. Against this Chiefs offense that is averaging 43 points per game in the postseason, Garoppolo might need to throw 27 passes in this game alone.
No disrespect to Jimmy G or this 49ers offense, but if they go down early, the Super Bowl could turn into a blowout quickly. The Chiefs have proven that no lead is safe vs. them. San Francisco has only been in four games this year when they’ve trailed at the half, and while they are 3-1 in those games, those three wins have all come against non-playoff teams. I don’t think this team is capable of going score for score with the Chiefs or of coming back from a 2-score deficit.
Finally, I expect Patrick Mahomes to leave nothing left in the tank. He will run a lot in this Super Bowl. If the 49ers play zone defense, Mahomes will pick them apart with the RPO’s that the Chiefs have run as much as anyone in the league. If the 49ers switch to man defense, expect the speedy Kansas City receivers to take the defense down field, and Mahomes to run when the defensive backs turn their backs to him. Mahomes will rush for at least 70 yards, including three or four back-breakers on 3rd downs.
Final Score Prediction: 33-20 Kansas City Chiefs
Prob Bet Time
Top Plays (2-Stars)
- Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards – Over 30.5 Yards (-134 odds)
- Patrick Mahomes 1st Rush Attempt – Over 4.5 Yards (-118 odds)
Solid Plays (1-Stars)
- Mecole Hardman Total Rec Yards – Over 22.5 Yards (-112 odds)
- Chiefs Total Points – Over 27.5 Points (-118 odds)
- 1st Scoring Play – 49ers Field Goal (+400 odds)
- 1st Score AND Lose Game – 49ers (+340 odds)
- George Kittle 1st Catch – Under 10.5 Yards (-108 odds)
Flyer Plays (0.5-Stars)
- Damien Williams 1st Rush Attempt – Over 3.5 Yards (+126 odds)
- Raheem Mostert 1st Rush Attempt – Under 3.5 Yards (+102 odds)
- Game/Team First TD Scorer
- Jimmy Garoppola – (+3300/+1800)
- Tevin Coleman – (+1500/+750)
- Patrick Mahomes – (+2200/+1200)
- Travis Kelce – (+750/+410)