So close to an other perfect week. We missed by the hook (half point) in the Seattle game on Thursday night from adding another undefeated week to our record. Instead, we’ll have to settle for a 2.55 unit gain as our 3-Star play on the Saints cashed, as did the Packers, winning outright over the Cowgirls.
- 3-Star Plays: 5-1 (+10.65 Units)
- 2-Star Plays: 8-2 (+10.56 Units)
- TOTAL: +21.21 Units for a weighted win percentage of 81.58%
Arizona +2.5 (Buy or wait for line to move to +3)
We’ve made good money this year fading the Falcons, and we look to continue that trend this week. The Cardinals are not a laughing stock anymore. Murray has shown signs of being good, and Kingsbury doesn’t look completely overwhelmed as a first time NFL coach. The Falcons, on the other hand, are heading on a downward spiral, and I don’t think Dan Quinn can get them out of it. 21% of bets are on the Cardinals right now, but the line has moved off the key number of 3, meaning the sharp money is on the Cardinals. Follow the sharps and bet Arizona to cover and possibly even win this game outright.
This game is in London, which like Thursday night games, usually lends to sloppy affairs. I have not been a fan of the Panthers with Cam Newton under center. Teams seemed to have figured out that if you force him to throw, you’ll win the game. Kyle Allen has been a breath of fresh air, and McCaffery is arguably the best play maker in the NFL. In a sloppy game, I tend to lean to the team with the best players on both sides of the ball. The Panthers have that with CMac and Kuechly. This line opened as Bucs -2.5, yet has flipped to Panthers by the same amount. Follow the money on this one and take Carolina, who’ll win by 6-10 points.
TEASER: Ravens -5.5 with Eagles +9
I’m somewhat violating one of my rules by including the Eagles in a bet, but the simple fact is that the Eagles don’t lose by more than one score. The Vikings do pose a legit threat to the Eagles’ horrible secondary, but I think the D-Line is finally starting to click. The Vikings don’t blow good teams out, nor do they score a lot of points, making +9 a solid investment. The Ravens, on the other hand, will enjoy playing the Bengals after a hard fought game vs. the Steelers last week. The Bengals are not good, so getting the Ravens line under 6 makes the teaser play worthwhile. The Ravens line has moved 3 points as well, despite the Ravens getting less than 50% of bets.
Survivor Pool Plays
- Top Play: Patriots over Giants
- “Safe” Plays: Ravens over Bengals
- Risky Plays: Cardinals over Falcons, Packers over Lions, Panthers over Bucs
- Stay Away: Cowboys over Jets, Chiefs over Texans, Chargers over Steelers, Redskins over Dolphins
Pick’Em League Plays
Another 8-7 week is certainly not good enough. Let’s get back to double digits this week.
Patriots, Panthers, Ravens, Browns, Texans, Saints, Eagles, Dolphins, Rams, Cardinals, Cowboys, Broncos, Chargers, Packers