The gravy train keeps on rolling as we had another perfect week in week four of the NFL. We added another 6.37 units to our bankroll as our 3-Star and both 2-Stars cashed out. Our play on the Saints with the basis of the Cowboys being overrated was proven correct (hopefully you followed my recommendation to split the play with half being on the money line). The Titans took care of business and won outright over a bad Falcons team as our synopsis on that play was spot on; and our teaser play on the Chargers and Chiefs looked shaky at first, but both teams ended up taking care of business.
- 3-Star Plays: 4-1 (+7.92 Units)
- 2-Star Plays: 7-1 (+10.74 Units)
- TOTAL: +18.66 Units for a weighted win percentage of 83.87%
This is your classic example of an over-exaggeration of previous week results. The Saints won 12-10 over the Cowboys, but didn’t score a TD and their offense looked stale. Meanwhile, the Bucs rolled the Rams and put up 55 points in the process. Generally speaking, the public has a very short-term memory so overreactions to previous week results will skew the lines. This is a perfect example of that. The Saints are the better team, and at home, it’s that simple. Keep in mind, the Bucs are 0-6 SU (0-5-1 ATS) as 3 point or less underdogs on the road. Don’t let last week’s results weigh heavily here, take the Saints.
Seahawks -1.5 (Thursday Night)
This line opened as the Seahawks getting 1.5 points and now has them favored by the same amount. The Rams defense was exposed vs. the Bucs, as was Jared Goff. Seattle is no easy place to go on short rest to face a team that’s always ready to go. Russell Wilson is a magician, and I believe he will have 2 to 3 plays tonight that win this game. Keep in mind, the Seahawks are 10-2 SU (8-3-1 ATS) as home favorites in primetime games, while also being 8-2 SU (7-1-2 ATS) in their last 10 games on short rest. Take the Hawks in what will be a somewhat ugly, yet high scoring game.
We’re once again betting against the Cowboys here moreso than betting on the Packers. Green Bay looked unstoppable for the first quarter last week against the Eagles, and then Adams got hurt and they decided to not run the ball once in four downs at the one yard line. That loss will sting, while the Cowboys proved the doubters right by losing to the first good team they played all year. The Packers will be playing on 10 days rest, and getting 3.5 points here is too much to pass up. The Cowboys are a good but not great team, and that extra half point is all the motivation we need to back the Pack here.
Survivor Pool Plays
- Top Play: Eagles over Jets
- “Safe” Plays: Chiefs over Colts, Patriots over Redskins
- Risky Plays: Ravens over Steelers, Bears over Raiders, Vikings over Giants
Pick’Em League Plays
8-7 last week is certainly not good enough, we’ll be better this week.
Seahawks, Ravens, Bears, Cardinals, Jaguars, Giants, Patriots, Eagles, Saints, Texans, Titans, Chargers, Packers, Chiefs, Browns