We kicked off the 2019 season just like we ended in 2018, red hot. Although we split on our top plays, the 2-Star plays both won giving us a +3.37 unit win on the week. Let’s keep taking Vegas’ money.
- 3-Stars: 1-1 (-0.27 Units)
- 2-Stars: 2-0 (+3.64 Units)
- TOTAL: +3.37 Units and a weighted win percentage of 70%
Buccaneers +7 (Thursday Night Game)
Thursday night games are generally sloppy affairs as teams are operating on short rest. This game should be especially sloppy since it features two rather inconsistent teams. The Panthers lost a closer than expected game to the Rams on Sunday while the Bucs lost to the 49ers despite having more yards and first downs. The Bucs lost because Winston threw two pick-6’s which accounted for 15 of the 49ers’ 31 points. I think he has a better game (hard to be worse), and getting 7 points against a divisional opponent on a Thursday night is too much to pass on. Another factor to consider is that despite the Panthers receiving 77% of bets since the line was released, it stayed on 6.5 until Thursday. The line not moving up to 7 (a key number) despite the heavy volume of bets suggests that sharp money on Tampa was keeping the line under 7.
Lions +2.5 (buy to 3 if possible)
The Lions blew an 18 point lead against the Cardinals and ended up with a tie. They now face the Chargers who just came off an OT win themselves vs the Colts. This play is one where we are following the money, as the line moved from +3 (a key number) to +2.5 despite only 22% of bets being on Detroit. This is a prime example of sharp money moving the line, and we want to be on the side of the sharps here.
The Bengals played the Seahawks very close last week, and the entire offense seems to have way more creativity in the post Marvin Lewis era. John Ross is a playmaker, and Joe Mixon has the keys to the offense now. The 49ers were beneficiaries of an awful day by Jameis Winston as their offense was very lackluster. I like the new look Bengals here versus a West Coast team playing their second game in a row East of the Mississippi River.
Survivor Pool Plays
Our top play hit, as did our two “safe” plays. Our riskier plays split as the Broncos didn’t take win over Oakland.
- Top Play: Patriots vs Dolphins
- “Safe” Play: Ravens vs Cardinals
- Risky Plays: Lions vs Chargers, Bengals vs 49ers, and Titans vs Colts
- Stay Away: Bills vs Giants, Cowboys vs Redskins, Eagles vs Falcons
Pick’Em League Plays
Last week we went 11-4-1, might have been good enough to be in the money.
Bucs, Titans, Lions, Giants, Ravens, Patriots, Cowboys, Texans, Steelers, Bengals, Packers, Chiefs, Saints, Bears, Eagles, Browns.