Football season is back, and the 2019 season kicks off tonight with the Packers visiting the Bears in one of the NFL’s best rivalries. We covered our favorite season long bets last week in Season Win Totals, and we will be back every week during the season to find our favorite bets. We made a lot of money last year and had huge success on our top plays (15-9 up 13.9 units and a 62.5% win percentage) and on our 2-star plays as well (25-15-2 for +15.5 units and once again, a 62.5% win percentage). Here’s to continuing our success.
Packers +3 (Thursday Night Game)
I’ve had a feeling on this game since the NFL schedule was released. I think the Bears are a prime candidate for a letdown year, and Rodgers is poised to show the world again that he is not washed up. New coaching comes in that should be way less vanilla than the McCarthy era and playing in Chicago is nothing new for this team. This line has dropped from +4 to +3 which means money is pushing the line down. Also, since 2013, home favorites of 3.5 or less vs a divisional opponent are 2-6-1 ATS and haven’t covered since that 2013 season (0-5-1). Play the Packers getting the points tonight.
Broncos Pick’em (Monday Night Game)
This is more a play against the Raiders than it is on the Broncos. The Raiders are an absolute mess, especially with Antonio Brown likely facing a suspension. Joe Flacco is a solid QB option that won’t win many games by himself, but he also won’t lose those games either. Add into the mix that the Raiders hired the previous Bengals defensive coordinator (who Flacco faced often while with the Ravens), so there’s a level of experience Flacco will have facing this defense. The line has dropped from the Raiders -3 to being a pick’em; I like the trend and recommend a play on the Broncos.
Teaser: Ravens +0.5 with Bills +8.5
I love the Ravens this year, and they face what could be the worst team in the NFL this season in the Dolphins. The Bills play at the Jets, but I think the Jets will start off slow as they incorporate a lot of new parts. Getting 8.5 is too good to pass up in a divisional game.
Colts +6.5 (buy to 7)
This is a follow the money play. Despite only 34% of bets on the newly Luck-less Colts, the line has dropped from 7.5 to 6.5. That drop is considerable as it passed by the key number of 7. What that means is a lot of sharp money is on the Colts getting the points. I believe you can wait closer to game time for the public to hammer the Chargers and get the line back to +7 on the Colts.
Survivor Pool Plays
- Top Play: Seahawks over Bengals
- “Safe” Plays: Eagles over Skins, Ravens over Dolphins
- Risky Plays: Packers over Bears, Broncos over Raiders
- Stay Away: Rams over Panthers, Chiefs over Jags
Pick’Em League Plays (Straight up, not spread)
Packers, Vikings, Eagles, Bills, Ravens, 49ers, Chiefs, Browns, Panthers, Cardinals, Seahawks, Chargers, Cowboys, Patriots, Texans, Broncos.