The NFL season is right around the corner and that can only mean one thing, it is time to bet. Last season, we made a killing by adding 38.66 units to our bankroll. This means that if you bet $25 per unit you would have made $966.50 last season. We were red hot last year, and we will look to continue that into the 2019 season. With almost all preseason games finished, now is the right time to look at the season win total over/unders and make some plays. As a refresher, a 3-Star bet is my highest typical bet, it means one should feel comfortable betting 3 units on the play. A 2-Star bet is a play that I like, but I don’t have as strong of an opinion on compared to a 3-Star. 1-Star plays are generally for prop bets or parlays.
Texans OVER 8.5 Wins (+130)
This is my favorite play. I like the Texans a lot this year, and with news of Andrew Luck’s retirement, the Texans appear primed to win this division. DeShaun Watson is the best QB in this division, and DeAndre Hopkins might be the best WR in football. I think 10 to 11 wins are definitely in play for this team, but even a 9-7 campaign cashes out on this bet.
Redskins UNDER 6.5 Wins (-154)
The juice is the only thing holding me back from possibly making this a 4-star massive play. The Redskins are not going to be good this year. In all honesty, I think this number should be 3.5-4.5, so getting two extra wins makes this a slam dunk. The NFC East has two very good teams which is always a good thing when looking at betting on an under.
Giants UNDER 5.5 Wins (+110)
Again, an NFC East team and an under. Like the Redskins, the Giants are not going to be very good this year. Eli Manning should retire, and Daniel Jones isn’t ready to man his own team yet. This team looks worse than their 5-11 team from last year now that OBJ is gone and all their receivers are getting injured. Bet this under with confidence.
Falcons UNDER 8.5 Wins (+105)
I do not like the Falcons this year. This team screams 7-9, so by getting the 8.5 number, we cash out even if they hit .500. Matt Ryan is not an elite QB, and this team still hasn’t figured out how to get Julio the ball down in the Red Zone. The Saints will run away with this division, and with all three other teams being above average, series splits seem likely. The Falcons will miss the playoffs.
Ravens OVER 8.5 Wins (+115)
The Ravens are a team that I’m high on this year. I think Lamar Jackson is a playmaker, and combined with the Ravens’ penchant for having great defenses, a divisional championship is not out of the question. Nine wins is what I’d guess for this team, but 10 isn’t out of the question, especially considering the changes in Pittsburgh and how the Off-Season Hype Teams (Browns this year) never seem to live up to expectations.
Vikings UNDER 9.5 Wins (-133)
Kirk Cousins, or Captain Check Down, showed his true colors last year. He’s a decent QB being paid to be Aaron Rodgers. The Vikings took a huge step down last season, only winning eight games, and I think will slide even more this year. Chicago and Green Bay will both finish ahead of them in the standings, so thinking the Vikings would win 10 games is next to impossible.
1-Star Prop Bets
AFC East Divisional Winner – Ravens +295
Like I mentioned above with the Ravens being an OVER play for us, I think this team has a legit shot of winning this division. So getting close to 3 to 1 odds on that is a very solid value.
Super Bowl Champion – Eagles (+1100), Chiefs (+680), Texans (+2000), and of course Patriots (+600)
- This Eagles team looks really good on paper and has a ton of weapons offensively. If Wentz stays healthy, this team has a great shot of bringing Philadelphia their second Lombardi Trophy in three seasons.
- The Chiefs have the most explosive QB in the league who might be the solution to Andy Reid’s constant mismanagement of games. This team was an offsides penalty away from going to the Super Bowl last year.
- Again, like I said above, I’m all in on the Texans this year. I love the Watson/Hopkins connection, and their defense is always near the top of the league. Getting +2000 is massive value for a team that should walk into a divisional win.
- Do I really need to explain why the Patriots are a play here? The Patriots have been to four of the last five Super Bowls, winning three of them (who’d they lose to again?). Until Brady retires, you can never count this team out.