Week 6 NFL Best Bets
We continued to add to our bank roll in week five thanks to a Sunday clean sweep. Our picks went 3-1 last week, however that one loss was on our top play. Our yearly total now stands at +7.75 units. Remember, a unit is what your single bet would be, so if you bet $10 a unit, you would be up $77.50 on the year. Our top play on the under in the Thursday night game looked promising at the beginning of the game, then Brady and Luck dueled it out for a lot of second half points. Meanwhile, our 2-star bets swept on Sunday, cashing in on the Jets and Lions wins as home pick ‘em games, and the Seahawks almost pulling away with a big upset win over the Rams while keeping it within the seven-point line.
As I have written about before, we have already discussed some key terms and looked at some season win total bets as well. Every week for the entire season I will be listing my best bets for the week, as well as picks and advice for survivor pools and pick ‘em leagues. Each week, we will also look back to the prior week to see if any lessons could be derived from what we experienced.
3-Stars: 3-3 (-0.81 units)
2-Stars: 8-3-2 (+8.56 units)
Total: +7.75 Units for a weighted win percentage of 62.50%
Without further ado, here are the picks:
Top Play (3-Star)
This line makes no sense. The Redskins were destroyed on Monday night by Drew Brees and Co. Meanwhile, the Panthers hung 33 on the Giants and are 3-1 on the year. So why are the Redskins favored? Well, they weren’t when the lines opened but reverse line movement has seen the line move from +1 to -1 while only 28% of bets are on the Redskins. This indicates smart money being on the Skins. This game also reminds of a game we saw earlier this year when the Redskins beat the Packers in an “upset.” Keep in mind that the Panthers are 2-7 in their last nine games when their win percentage is above 75%. Expect a lot of points but don’t count on another 63-yarder from Gano. Take the Skins.
Solid Plays (2-Stars)
The Browns are not awful this year. They got the monkey off their back of finding ways to lose (albeit on one of the worst kicks I’ve ever seen) and now come into a game against the Chargers as slight home dogs. There is reverse line movement in this game that saw the line drop two points despite only 38% of tickets being on the Browns. The Chargers are playing at 1:00PM eastern time, and the last time the Chargers were away favorites at that start time, they lost to the Browns. Trust Baker Mayfield, but mainly this defense, to keep the Chargers in check and win this game outright.
The Texans are an odd team. There was a lot of hype around them before the year thanks to DeShaun Watson and Deandre Hopkins. However, they have failed to live up to that hype as of yet. Close OT wins in back-to-back weeks should have this team feeling good about themselves heading into a game versus a bad Buffalo team. The Bills got an upset win vs the Titans last week, as well as a shocking win over the Vikings, but don’t let that fool you. This is not a good team. The Texans’ offense should get back on track this week and win big. Keep in mind, the Texans are 8-1 (6-2-1 ATS) in their last nine games as 10 or more point favorites.
Losing to the Browns is usually pretty bad for a team’s psyche (teams are 0-5 in games after a loss to the Browns), but the Ravens will buck that small streak this Sunday. The Titans have been an up and down team this year but still lack an effective offense. The Ravens meanwhile have found some explosion thanks to new receivers and a revitalized Joe Flacco. Reverse line movement is abundant here as the line has moved three points despite only 34% of tickets being on Baltimore. I believe the Ravens come back strong and take care of the Titans fairly easily this week. Back Flacco and the Ravens.
Survivor Pool Plays
Our safe play won last week on the Patriots, so hopefully you are still alive in your pools to keep picking. We split the risky plays with a win on the Jets and a loss on the 49ers. We also avoided elimination by staying away from the Ravens and Packers.
Safe Plays – Texans, Rams and Packers
Risky Plays – Browns and Redskins
Stay Away – Patriots over Chiefs, Jaguars over Cowboys, and Seattle over Oakland
Pick ‘Em Plays (no spread)
We went 9-6 which is a winning record but most likely not good enough to win your league. Let’s reverse course and look for another double-digit win week.
Eagles, Vikings, Browns, Dolphins, Redskins, Jets, Steelers, Falcons, Raiders, Texans, Rams, Cowboys, Ravens, Patriots, Packers
Nothing from a betting standpoint stands out from last week. Just remember to bet with your head and not over it. Don’t randomly change up units, or start betting more games. Stay the course and have fun doing it. Once betting becomes something that is causing you anxiety, or you can’t handle a loss, it is time to stop betting. This is supposed to be a fun thing, not a cause of stress.
As always, if the Eagles do not end up in my best bets section (and generally they won’t since I have a rule to never bet them, to much emotionally invested to begin with as well as bias of being my favorite team) I will post what my play is on them anyway. Last week was another chapter in the 2018 Eagles story of “Too Little Too Late.” This team is clearly still suffering from a Super Bowl hangover but I think the two biggest issues have both come from the coaching aspect. Doug Pederson has called way too many conservative plays to begin games and only amps things up once the fourth quarter rolls around. It’s time to unleash Carson and this offense and figure out a way to get the run game flowing smoothly. The offensive line play has been offensive (not in a good way) and the big guys need to get their play in check to keep Carson upright. More quick hitting plays will help that. The other issue has been the defensive scheme of giving way too much cushion to outside receivers. Doing so negates the positive affect the line can have since the opposing quarterbacks can make quicker, easier throws. Giving that much cushion, and refusing to have any over the top safety help, makes the life of our defensive backs impossible. Schwartz has got to figure out something to help these guys out. However, before we start throwing this defense under the bus, let’s remember that they only gave up one touchdown last week to a strong Minnesota offense. As for this week, I expect the Eagles to steam roll the Giants on Thursday night. The Giants offensive line is a mess and Eli cannot stretch the defense vertically anymore. I think the defensive line has a statement game while the offense starts to hit stride more and Carson throws for over 300 yards. Look for more shots downfield and a steadier douse of the run game. Eagles win 31-13.