In case you were wondering where I went, one of my self-imposed rules is to never bet on Week 17 in the NFL. There are too many late scratches, low motivation, and downright weird games (as you could see in the Patriots-Dolphins game). Week 16 saw us get back into our winning ways as we added 0.73 units thanks to winning our 3-star game on the Cardinals easily. The Bucs game pushed, and we should have known better than to bet on the Bengals.

  • 3-Star Plays: 11-5-1 (+15.03 Units)
  • 2-Star Plays: 19-11-2 (+12.58 Units)
  • TOTAL: +27.61 Units for a weighted win percentage of 65.7%

3-Star Play

Saints -7 (buy the half point)

The Saints, in my opinion, are the best team in football right now; and no, I’m not forgetting about the Ravens. I think a blend of skill and experience puts the Saints ahead of the pack right now. Not getting a bye is a tough draw for a team that finished with 13 wins this year, but I think the Saints will roll on Sunday.

Brees missing all the games he did this year could actually be a blessing in disguise as his arm should be more rested than usual. Add in the crazy atmosphere that you know the NOLA fans will bring, and it will be tough for Kirk and the Vikings to even keep this one close. Kirk doesn’t do well when the spotlight is on him, and I don’t think a playoff game in the Superdome is a good spot for him. Look for the Saints to take Dalvin Cook (who isn’t 100% healthy) out of the gameplan and force Kirk to make enough plays to keep up with the high-powered Saints offense. Saints win 34-17.

2-Star Play

Patriots -5

“The Patriots are done.” It’s a common rhetoric that we’ve heard multiple times throughout their dynasty. This year might feel a little different as Brady isn’t making JV level skill position players look like hall of famers anymore. But this is still New England. It’s January. And this game is in Foxboro. The Patriots are only getting 52% of bets which is shockingly low for such a public team, and I think a lot of that has to do with people thinking this team isn’t good anymore. New England is 6-3 SU and ATS in the playoffs since 2010 as a favorite of less than 7 points and two of the losses came in the Super Bowl. Brady won’t go out in the first round to the Titans, so don’t overthink this one. Patriots win 20-10.

Gut Feelings

For the other two games this weekend, my gut tells me the Texans will win and that game will go over the total of 43. I also think the Eagles pull the “upset” over the Seahawks thanks to a newly found identity. 

Texans win 27-20 and Eagles win 20-17.