We should have known better than to trust the Eagles. And even moreso, I should have trusted my rules of never betting on them. Outside of that debacle, we still added 2.55 Units to our bank roll, thanks to the Cardinals winning outright as our 3-Star play and the Panthers taking care of business in London. This week is full of “Fishy” lines, and I’ll delve into them later.
- 3-Star Plays: 6-1 (+13.38 Units)
- 2-Star Plays: 9-3 (+10.38 Units)
- TOTAL: +23.76 Units for a weighted win percentage of 80%
The Titans have benched Marcus Mariota in what most likely concludes his career in Tennessee. However, Tannehill is a more than capable backup and won’t be asked to do much vs. the Chargers. San Diego comes in after a horrific loss to the Steelers in LA that saw their defense picked apart by a 4th-string, practice squad quarterback named Duck. This line opened as a pick’em, but despite only 38% of bets being on Tennessee, the line has moved to Titans -2. Follow the money and continue the Chargers fade.
Chicago is coming off a bad loss to the Raiders two weeks ago but had a bye-week to get their minds right. New Orleans has been red hot, winning their last four games. Teddy Bridgewater is doing exactly what they ask him to do. However, those four wins are by an average margin of 5.5 points. The line movement is also in our favor here as the Bears are only receiving 31% of bets and the line is expected to move off the key number of 3 to 3.5. I expect the relentless Bears defense to pressure Bridgewater into multiple mistakes while the offense does enough clock control to come out with a 6-point win.
I hate betting massive spreads like this, but the Dolphins are the exception to a lot of rules. There is a connotation that, in the NFL, you should always bet on 2-TD or higher underdogs. However, since 2016, favorites of 14 or more are 21-1 SU and 14-8 ATS. The general rule is shifting because the bad teams are getting that much worse. If you change the parameters to being 17 or more point favorites, the teams are 5-0 since 2016 and 4-1 ATS, with the only loss being a 16-point win by the Patriots as a 17-point favorite. The Bills are rested, the line has moved 1.5 points despite over 60% of bets being on the Dolphins, and Miami is just that bad. Bet the Bills to win by at least 3 touchdowns in this one.
New this week, I’m going to point out games where the line is considered fishy. What this means is that a line just doesn’t make any sense. Generally, in the betting world and real life too, when something seems too good to be true, it usually is. This week, there are multiple lines that have our Fish Finder radar beeping.
- Chiefs -3 at Broncos – The Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL. The Broncos are not. Yet this line has moved from 5.5 to 3 despite 80% of bets being on Denver. This is a classic example of a line that the general public will see and feast on. Don’t ever think you know more than Vegas, that’s when they get you.
- Rams -3 at Falcons – Atlanta has looked awful ever since they beat the Eagles, and the Rams, while they have been struggling, are widely considered to still be a Super Bowl contender. This line has dropped a full point since opening and just screams “stay away.”
- Packers -5.5 vs Raiders – This is a classic example of the sharps knowing something we don’t. Oakland isn’t very good, yet this line has dropped from the key number of 7, past 6, and down to 5.5. That is significant because there will be considerable teaser liability on Green Bay for the books. Maybe the Raiders won’t win, but this looks to be the makings of a closer than expected 3-point win by the Packers.
Survivor Pool Plays
- Top Play: Bills over Dolphins
- “Safe” Plays: 49ers over Redskins
- Risky Plays: Titans over Chargers, Cardinals over Giants, Bears over Saints
- Stay Away: All the games mentioned in the “Fish Finder” section
Pick’Em League Plays
8-6 last week won’t cut it, despite having some solid upset picks with the Texans and Cardinals.
Broncos, Cardinals, Texans, Bills, Lions, Packers, Jaguars, Falcons, 49ers, Titans, Seahawks, Bears, Eagles, Patriots