Yuck. That was bad, and I fully take responsibility. No bad beats, no excuses, just bad plays on my part. The Steelers defense couldn’t mask their offense’s inability to move the ball. And the Chargers and Rams forgot to show up. Important to realize we’re not invincible and bad weeks happen. We’re still up close to 27 units on the year and winning 66% of our bets. I will be better this week.

  • 3-Star Plays: 10-5-1 (+12.3 Units)
  • 2-Star Plays: 19-10-1 (+14.58 Units)
  • TOTAL: +26.88 Units for a weighted win percentage of 66%

3-Star Play

Cardinals +10

The Seahawks are playing great football right now, but this game doesn’t matter to them. Even if they lose and the 49ers win, the winner of their week 17 matchup will get a bye week and possibly the 1-seed if the Saints drop a game. Seattle will be looking ahead and while I still think they win this game, 10 points is a lot to give to a divisional team that is still getting their rookie QB and head coach experience. I’ll take the Cardinals getting 10 here and expect this to be a touchdown game.

2-Star Plays

Buccaneers +3

Another play against a team looking ahead. The Texans have all but locked up the AFC South (the only way they don’t win the division is if they lose out AND the Titans beat the Saints this week too). I believe the Texans will take this game less seriously than they should following the big win versus the Titans last week, and the Bucs can score, even if Godwin doesn’t play. Jameis is playing for a new contract, so he will continue to chuck the ball to anyone who will catch it. I like Tampa at home getting the points here.

Bengals Pk

Call me crazy. I don’t like betting on garbage teams, but there is opportunity here. A ton of reverse line movement has dropped this line from 3 to 0 despite only 38% of bets backing the Bengals. Money is on Cinci, and I can see why. I think Dalton is out to prove he can be more than just a team’s backup QB moving forward, and I think the Dolphins will be trying to lose this one for draft pick purposes. Bengals play harder and come away with the win here.

Survivor Pool Plays

  • Top Play: Colts over Panthers
  • “Safe” Plays: Ravens over Browns, Falcons over Jaguars
  • Risky Plays: Bucs over Texans, Redskins over Giants
  • Stay Away: Dolphins over Bengals, Seahawks over Cardinals

Pick’Em League Plays

9-7 last week, didn’t hit on some of the upsets that occurred.

Buccs, Patriots, 49ers, Broncos, Raiders, Falcons, Saints, Redskins, Steelers, Bengals, Colts, Ravens, Eagles, Seahawks, Chiefs, Packers.