Week 14 was a roller coaster for our 3-Star bet that ended up right where it started, a push. We still made money though as we went 2-1 in our two star bets thanks to the Falcons and Rams taking care of business rather easily. Another 1.64 units were added to our bank roll, and we stay above 70% on the year with our picks.

  • 3-Star Plays: 10-4-1 (+15.3 Units)
  • 2-Star Plays: 19-8-1 (+18.58 Units)
  • TOTAL: +33.88 Units for a weighted win percentage of 70.8%

3-Star Play

Steelers -2 (Sunday Night)

Duck, duck, duck…playoffs? Duck Hodges has the Steelers playing incredible football as of late. This defense completely changed course with the acquisition of Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Devin Bush has become a force at linebacker. Pittsburgh keeps winning games because their offense doesn’t make mistakes and their defense is really good at forcing other teams into them. Buffalo has all but locked up a playoff berth this season (despite the fact that they have only beaten one team with a winning record). Pittsburgh is fighting for their playoff lives still, and a win over Buffalo would be massive. This line opened at a pick’em, yet has moved to -2 despite only 24% of bets on the Steelers. The Duck keeps flying this week, take the Steelers laying anything under 3 points.

2-Star Plays

Chargers +2.5 (buy to 3)

This is another example of reverse line movement where we will follow the sharp money. Any time a line moves off of 3, bettors take notice. Only 23% of bets are currently on the Chargers, yet the line moved down to 2.5 from 3. One gut factor that favors the Chargers here is that Kirk Cousins is dreadful outside of 1:00 Eastern games. Not sure why, but the Vikings are 4-8 SU and 3-8-1 ATS in games started after 4:00, and that number drops to 2-6 (2-6-1 ATS) on the road. Buy this line up to 3 and halve the spread and the money line (i.e. put 1 unit on Chargers +3 and 1 unit on Chargers money line).

Rams -1

Let’s just keep fading the Cowboys. They are not a good football team but more importantly, they will be looking ahead to next week versus the Eagles. No other game matters for the Cowboys if they beat the Eagles so this is a prime look-ahead-let-down game. The Rams have a small, but possible, route to the playoffs still, and Goff and McVay need to prove still that last year wasn’t a fluke. Dallas will not want to deal with the pounding run game of Gurley, and Garrett isn’t the type of coach that I believe can keep his team from looking ahead to the Divisonal matchup (and most likely determinant of who wins the NFC Least).

Survivor Pool Plays

  • Top Play: Patriots over Bengals
  • “Safe” Play: Ravens over Jets
  • Risky Plays: Steelers over Bills, Rams over Cowboys, Chargers over Vikings
  • Stay Away: Eagles over Redskins, Packers over Bears, Chiefs over Broncos

Pick’Em League Plays

14-2 last week. That should have won your league.

Ravens, Buccs, Eagles, Bears, Patriots, Titans, Seahawks, Chiefs, Giants, Steelers, Raiders, Cardinals, 49ers, Rams, Chargers, Saints