Another week down, and another week that we added money to our bankroll in our NFL bets! A solid gain of 2.55 units last week has our total over 25 units on the year. The Falcons and Saints both took care of business for our 3-Star teaser (hopefully you added some extra on the Falcons straight up as well), while our 2-Stars split as the Browns handled the Steelers like a helmet to the head on Thursday night, offsetting the Dolphins resorting back to their awful ways.
- 3-Star Plays: 9-3 (+15.57 Units)
- 2-Star Plays: 13-7-1 (+9.66 Units)
- TOTAL: +25.23 Units for a weighted win percentage of 69.7%
3-Star Play
Broncos +4
The Broncos are playing some good football since moving on from Joe “Elite” Flacco, beating the Browns two weeks ago and having a big lead on the Vikings last week before giving it up at the end. Buffalo, on the other hand, continues to be a beneficiary of a weak schedule as they are beat the really bad teams they face. We have been fading Buffalo for a while now in our NFL bets, and we look to continue that this week. This should be a low-scoring affair which always benefits the team getting points. I look for the Broncos’ defense to keep Allen from beating them on the ground, forcing him to win with his arm. I don’t think he’ll be able to do that here. Take Denver getting the 4 points (great teaser play if this moves to 4.5 as well).
2-Star Plays
Browns -10 (Buy the half point)
Are the Browns 10 points better than any team right now? It’s a good question, especially with the drama that unfolded after last week’s Steelers game. However, I think the fight, and suspension of Garrett, will actually force this team to bond and play well. It helps that they are going against the Dolphins and the game is in the cold air of Cleveland. This line has moved from 9 to 10.5 despite only 38% of bets being on Cleveland. Look for the Browns to win this one by more than two touchdowns.
Colts/Texans Under 46 (Thursday Night)
Our first total bet of the year’s NFL bets will be on tonight’s divisional matchup between the Colts and Texans. These Thursday night games are generally sloppy affairs, and when the line is 46 or lower, the under has hit 4 out of 6 times. The betting line suggests that the Colts will cover this game, and dogs pair well with unders. I don’t think both teams score 20 or more points tonight as the short rest combined with the divisional rivalry keep this game close, and low scoring.
Survivor Pool Plays
- Top Play: Steelers over Bengals
- “Safe” Plays: Browns over Dolphins and Saints over Panthers
- Risky Plays: Colts over Texans, Broncos over Bills, Lions over Redskins
- Stay Away: Bears over Giants, Raiders over Jets, Falcons over Bucs
Pick’Em League Plays
11 wins in 14 games was hopefully good enough to put you in the money last week.
Colts, Browns, Broncos, Steelers, Giants, Jets, Saints, Falcons, Lions, Jaguars, Patriots, Packers, Eagles, Ravens
