Well, that was bad. Week 9 did not treat us well as we lost two of three, including our top play on the Giants. No way around it, I expect better of my picks. However, one lesson we can take from last week is the value of a first half bet versus a full game bet. The Giants game was a perfect example. One of my “tricks” I like to do is if I like a home underdog, I bet their first half instead of the game. My thought process is that the underdog will come out more fired up in the first half and won’t have to deal with the better team making adjustments at half time. This would have worked in the Giants game as they were +3.5 in the first half and would have covered that spread. Anyway, we’re onto Week 10.

  • 3-Star Plays: 7-3 (+10.11 Units)
  • 2-Star Plays: 12-6 (+9.84 Units)
  • TOTAL: +19.95 Units for a weighted win percentage of 68.2%

3-Star Play

Teaser: Lions +8.5 with Cardinals +10.5

The Bears are in a downward spiral, and their offense looks horrendous. I think the Lions have a great shot of winning this game against their division rival, so getting 8.5 points in this teaser is the way to go. As for the Cardinals, they are coming off a hard fought home loss to the undefeated 49ers. They get extra rest since they played on Thursday night, and we can get over 10 points here against a bad Buccaneers team. The Bucs have played good teams well, but have struggled against the lesser competition. Getting double digit points is solid in this teaser on the Cardinals.

2-Star Plays

Browns -3

It’s put up or shut up time in Cleveland. The preseason darlings have been atrocious this season, and a lot of the blame falls on the declining play of Mayfield but also on first time head coach Freddie Kitchens. He has done a horrible job play calling and getting his superstar WR involved in the offense. Despite all this, the Browns are 3 point favorites against a good, but not great, Bills team. Despite only 27% of bets being on Cleveland, the line moved from 2.5 to 3 (a key number). The Bills have beaten the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans, Dolphins, and Redskins this year. Those teams have a combined 9 wins (4 of which are the Titans). The Browns are a clear step up from the teams the Bills have beaten this year. I like Cleveland to put out one of their best performances of the season here as their backs are squarely against the wall.

Only one two-star play this week as the lines aren’t speaking to me, and I won’t just pick a bet I don’t believe in.

Survivor Pool Plays

  • Top Play: Saints over Falcons
  • “Safe” Plays: Colts over Dolphins, Ravens over Bengals
  • Risky Plays: Browns over Bills, Lions over Bears, Cardinals over Bucs
  • Stay Away: Rams over Steelers, Giants over Jets, Packers over Panthers

Pick’Em League Plays

10-4 last week and we got some upset plays right, might have been good enough for a win.

Chargers, Chiefs, Browns, Cardinals, Giants, Saints, Ravens, Packers, Lions, Colts, Steelers, Vikings, 49ers