The coin keeps rolling our way as we continue our hot streak into week three of the NFL season. We cashed in on our 3-star play when the Bucs won outright as a 7-point underdog versus the Panthers last Thursday night. Our 2-stars split, but we still added 2.55 units to our total, upping our YTD winnings to 5.92 units.

YTD Records

  • 3-Stars: 2-1 (+2.46 Units)
  • 2-Stars: 3-1 (+3.46 Units)
  • TOTAL: +5.92 Units and a weighted win percentage of 70.59%

3-Star Plays

Steelers +7

The Steelers are in turmoil. They’ve lost Big Ben after starting the year 0-2 and now turn to Mason Rudolph to right the ship. Trading this year’s first rounder for Minkah Fitzpatrick shows the Steelers still want to win, and I think getting 7 points versus an average team like the 49ers is way too many. Rudolph did not look bad and now has some more time with the first unit this week to get ready. I don’t know if the Steelers will win, but their backs are against the wall and this is a must win game. So take the points.

2-Star Plays

Colts -1

Indy has been way better than anyone has expected and are a coin toss in OT versus the Chargers away from being 2-0. They now get to play their first home game against a Falcons team that went through an emotional roller coaster against the Eagles last Sunday night. Despite the Eagles losing just about every player, the Falcons needed a long bubble screen TD from Julio to win the game. I think they will come out flat this week and the Colts are disciplined enough to get the win here. Also, despite 63% of bets being on the Falcons, the line makers have not moved the line to a pick’em or Atlanta being favored. Line movement under 3 is fairly common, so this indicates the money is on the Colts.

Texans +3

This is more of a gut play than anything else. I loved the Texans heading into this season, and despite a flat game versus the Jaguars, I think this is still a Super Bowl caliber team. The Chargers are one of those teams that is always good but never great, and I think the Texans go in to LA and get a win as DeShaun Watson continues to shine.

Survivor Pool Plays

Our Top and Safe plays hit again and we avoided a mistake on the Eagles.

  • Top Play: Cowboys over Dolphins
  • “Safe” Play: Patriots over Jets
  • Risky Plays: Colts over Falcons, Jags over Titans
  • Stay Away: Bears over Skins, Eagles over Lions, Bucs over Giants

Pick’Em League Plays

We went 10-6 last week, good but probably not good enough to win your league.

Jaguars, Packers, Eagles, Chiefs, Bills, Colts, Vikings, Patriots, Cowboys, Giants, Cardinals, Saints, Texans, Steelers, Rams, Bears