The Wild Card Round did not go how any one thought, and we should have expected that. I let my personal bias against Kirk Cousins show, and he proved us wrong by beating the Saints in New Orleans. The Patriots also let us down, despite having many chances to win that game. Credit to the Titans though, they played amazingly well. We will look to get back on track this week thanks to an interesting trend I’ve found.
- 3-Star Plays:Â 11-6-1 (+12.03 Units)
- 2-Star Plays: 19-12-2 (+10.58 Units)
- TOTAL: +22.61 Units for a weighted win percentage of 62.8%
3-Star Play
Packers -4.5
I discovered a very interesting trend that has occurred in the NFL playoffs since the 2013 season. There have been 16 instances of a team winning on the road the round before and then playing on the road again as underdogs the next week. Those teams haven’t won a single game, 0-for-16. This doesn’t bode well for the Vikings, Titans, nor Seahawks. Now, teams in this scenario are 7-9 ATS. However, if you look at only teams that were getting less than seven points, those teams drop to 0-7 SU and ATS with an average score of 33-20.
This is the category the Seahawks fall under. My gut has been telling me Packers since the Seahawks beat the Eagles, and this trend only confirms that. I do not believe the Seahawks are playing very good football, and the fact they gave a 40-year QB with a torn hamstring three chances to tie that game last week backs up that belief. Rodgers will pick this team apart, and as long as the Packers can convert their Red Zone chances, Green Bay should roll into the NFC Championship. Packers win 31-20.
2-Star Play
Parlay: 49ers -6.5 (Alternate Line) with Ravens -6.5 (Alternate Line) +200 Payout
This is again a play based off the aforementioned trend we found. The Vikings and Titans do not have history on their side here, and getting these two heavy favorites to win by more than a touchdown while getting a 2:1 payout is a great bet. The Vikings will be playing on short rest, and while their defensive line made things tough for Brees and Co., the 49ers have one of the better lines in the NFL. I think the 49ers control this game from start to finish and and win comfortably. 49ers 27-13.
Baltimore might be the best team in the NFL and have the MVP at quarterback. Tennessee came off a huge win vs. the Patriots, thanks to Derrick Henry’s dominant performance. Don’t get me wrong, the Titans are really good, but the Ravens are better, and I think they catch the Titans at a good time as the win over New England might be hard to get over in just one week. Ravens 23-14.
Gut Feelings on the Other Game
Nine and a half points is a lot to give a division winner in the playoffs. But Andy Reid is great with over a week to prepare for his opponent. Teams coming off a home win the week before and then being over an 8.5 point dog the next week are 3-6 both SU and ATS. This tells me that the spread won’t matter, either the Texans win outright, or the Chiefs win by 10+. One thing I do know, this game will be high scoring. Chiefs 34-24.
